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4

Aug 2026

随着有关重开霍尔木兹海峡的讨论打压美元和美债收益率，在美国就业数据公布前金价反弹

霍尔木兹海峡或重开引爆金价反弹：XAU/USD回升至4,087，美元油价走弱、收益率下行托底。JOLTS转冷、加息概率降至57%，建议区间策略、关注ADP与非农。

4

Aug 2026

费城联储保尔森称通胀仍过高，不确定性下政策应维持温和限制性

通胀仍偏高，费城联储保尔森强调政策须“温和限制性”、按兵不动并非险胜：利率与股指波动或收敛，SOFR区间交易可期；能源大波动宜用限定风险价差，收益率曲线偏平。

4

Aug 2026

美国6月工厂订单下滑，助长降息押注并加剧市场波动

爆冷！美国6月工厂订单环比跌0.3%逆转升势，制造业降温加剧。交易上可押注美债收益率下行、SOFR期权，并用股指保护性看跌与EUR/USD看涨捕捉美元走弱。

4

Aug 2026

墨西哥7月消费者信心回升，加大对墨西哥央行降息压力，并支撑比索利差交易

墨西哥7月消费者信心升至45、超预期，需求回暖信号浮现。Banxico或难激进降息，利差继续撑比索。策略：买USD/MXN看跌、EWW看涨期权。

4

Aug 2026

贝森特释放霍尔木兹海峡重启通航谈判信号，地缘溢价回落拖累WTI走低

贝森特称霍尔木兹海峡重开谈判最快周三落地，油市风险溢价或加速回吐。WTI已跌3.29%至76美元，或下探72；OVX料回落，卖权利金与认沽价差布局，但防协议延误挤空。

4

Aug 2026

特朗普团队考虑动用美联储FIMA回购机制支撑日元，并遏制美国国债市场动荡

特朗普拟促美联储以FIMA回购助日本护日元，避免为干预抛美债推高收益率。日元逼近164后回升。策略：谨慎做多波动、看空欧元，关注FOMC扩容。

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