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5

Aug 2026

美国ISM服务业PMI不及预期，强化美联储鸽派押注并促使市场调仓

美国7月ISM服务业PMI仅54.1低于预期54.5：扩张未改却降温。利率押注转鸽，SOFR、国债期权受惠；美元偏弱利多黄金，股市短波动。

5

Aug 2026

英镑承压，荷兰合作银行警示英央行重新定价及10月预算风险冲击欧元/英镑

英镑兑欧元反弹后转弱，BoE加息预期或被高估，预算案前gilts与英镑承压。关注EUR/GBP回调0.8550买入，破0.8588或冲0.8650。

5

Aug 2026

DAX在突破25,900后，随着艾略特波浪第五浪涨势增强，剑指26,702

DAX艾略特波浪仍偏多：突破25,900确认第5浪重启，首看26,702。回调可加码call或牛市价差，止损24,651下。欧央行宽松与出口动能支撑。

5

Aug 2026

贝森特承诺支持日元，促使美元/日元回落受关注，日本回购市场准入扩大

贝森特喊“不惜一切”挺日元、拟扩大repo压美元；USD/JPY从163.56回落后反弹近158-160，仍有干预风险。地缘与数据搅动，宜用外汇看跌、股指跨式、原油短期call对冲。

5

Aug 2026

卡什卡利暗示利率立场趋于温和，市场关注美元与美债收益率整固

卡什卡利意外放鸽：不主张猛加息，重心在降通胀非压增长。情绪指数回落，美元与美债或盘整；衍生品可聚焦SOFR短端期权卖权利金与外汇区间策略。

5

Aug 2026

法国兴业银行认为，美日支撑日元是贸易加权层面的举措，旨在抑制亚洲美元走强

美日联手撑日元，背后是美国贸易战术：压制美元对亚洲伙伴走强。市场料单次干预难扭趋势，关注后续动作与波动飙升；期权跨式/看跌布局。

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