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11

Aug 2026

油价反弹推升美元，布伦特原油触及90美元；在收益率走强、股市走软之际，美元/日元测试159

油价续弹：布伦特冲90、WTI逼86，拉升美债息与美元/日元近159.4。澳元偏鹰、加元受油撑；金银回调。墨西哥比索受AI出口支撑。

11

Aug 2026

金价企稳于近两个月高位附近，油价与霍尔木兹紧张局势左右美联储利率前景

黄金冲高两个月高位后回吐，油价与霍尔木兹海峡谈判牵动通胀与美联储9月加息49%预期；CPI/PPI倒计时，期权波动率策略成焦点。

11

Aug 2026

汇丰预计在美日联手支撑日元操作后，美元/日元波动区间扩大；实际利率为负限制下行空间

日美7月底联合干预致美元/日元急跌并“封顶”上方；负实际利率托底，料148-156更宽震荡。投机空头回补或推高波动，期权跨式/铁秃鹰更具吸引力。

11

Aug 2026

中东风险升温提振油企股；欧洲天然气飙升，糖与谷物同步走强

能源到农产齐现“供应冲击”！美伊谈判降温+伊拉克出货下滑推油价上行；沙特炼厂遇袭抬升柴油裂解；欧洲气价跳涨。糖、谷物亦偏多。

11

Aug 2026

原油涨势推高通胀押注，市场静待美国CPI；美联储9月加息概率上升

CPI前市场区间震荡；油价因霍尔木兹僵局与利比亚风险飙升，推高9月加息押注。RBA偏鹰、收益率走高。策略：买油call、做空近端利率、黄金价差、多半导体波动率。

11

Aug 2026

随着外汇波动降温，DXY料维持区间震荡；市场关注美债供应与CPI以研判美联储政策走向

美联储9月按兵不动或加息仍五五开，外汇波动率回落，DXY料守99.50-100区间；可做利差与卖短波动率，但警惕CPI与美债供给引发抛售。

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