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15

Aug 2026

欧元/美元反弹测试100日移动均线，乐观反转风险升温

欧元兑美元反弹测试100日均线1.1567，守住1.1500令反转风险升温；若破位看1.1629/1.1685。期权偏短线Call，谨防鹰派纪要引发回落至1.1465、1.1400。

15

Aug 2026

美国零售销售不及预期，汽油与新车推升整体增幅，加息押注仍持续

美国零售同比+5%看似强劲，实靠汽油撑场：剔燃仅+4.2%逼近通胀，环比-0.6%。汽油量跌、车市分化、SNAP退潮拖累，警惕利率预期重定价。

15

Aug 2026

美元指数跌破100点，财政赤字扩大，金价瞄准突破4,400美元

美元指数跌破100，赤字逼近1.8万亿、利息支出超国防引爆担忧；金价逆紧缩坚挺，若站稳4400或加速上攻。日元近160仍承压，期权做多波动率受捧。

15

Aug 2026

中国第二季零售黄金投资在第一季触顶后大幅下滑，但上半年需求仍增长31%

金价涨29%却难挡量跌：中国2026年Q2零售金条107吨环降48%。VAT新政挤压非SGE渠道，资金转向标准金条与ETF；H2需求料增20%至500吨。

15

Aug 2026

三菱日联警告：中国7月数据或左右人民币及亚洲汇市，央行在中间价承压下控盘

中国7月数据成亚汇风向标：若弱于预期，人民币与澳元、韩元恐承压。交易员宜用USD/CNH看涨、AUD/USD看跌期权对冲，并关注人行中间价与降息风险。

15

Aug 2026

美元/日元维持在159.40附近，疲弱美国情绪拖累美元，日元仍偏软

USD/JPY 159.40 附近僵持：美元因信心数据偏弱回落，但日元更弱抵消压力。波动率降至8.2%，可布局铁秃鹰卖波动；突破160.20/跌破159.10再做方向。

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