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30

Sep 2026

澳元跌破0.7000，澳洲联储暗示转向鸽派，美联储信号喜忧参半

澳元加息反跌！RBA指引偏鸽、风险情绪转弱及美债收益率高企打压AUD/USD跌破0.7000；美联储官员分歧、美国信心降至十年低位，市场紧盯澳洲修剪均值CPI。

30

Sep 2026

片山指出日元被低估，日本与美国加强协调；美元/日元徘徊于157附近

日财长称日元被低估是问题，日美同意协作维持汇市秩序。美元/日元157附近受阻，警惕再干预。策略：逢高做空，目标156.50/156.00，止损158.50上方。

30

Sep 2026

澳元在澳洲联储加息后走软；纽元/美元跌破0.5650，市场关注纽西兰联储收紧政策

澳洲第四次加息至4.60%却释放放缓讯号，澳元走弱拖累纽元/美元跌破0.5650。市场押注RBNZ 10月再升至3.00%，但0.5700不破仍宜逢高做空，瞄准0.5600/0.5550。

30

Sep 2026

古尔斯比指出通胀持续性与赤字刺激因素，警告炼油产能瓶颈或令价格压力维持高位

古尔斯比警告通胀超标5年半、赤字刺激或致过热，降息需见通胀再下行。交易上布局“高利率更久”：空美债/买TLT认沽，买VIX认购，并押注炼厂瓶颈推升成品油价差。

30

Sep 2026

Musalem认为AI资本开支推高顽固的需求型通胀，呼吁美联储在不承诺利率路径下提供更清晰指引

AI基建热潮推高需求、令通胀更黏！圣路易斯联储穆萨莱姆称经济强劲、政策仍偏宽松，官员须透明解释框架，SEP点阵图应改进，避免市场误判反应函数。

30

Sep 2026

美联储巴尔呼吁重新校准政策，市场已计入10月和12月加息预期

加息风险再升温！巴尔称需“重新校准”，通胀脱轨成核心忧虑；市场押注10月加息66%、12月94%。GDP与就业稳健，AI短扰动长提效，宜用SOFR、期权与外汇对冲。

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