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29

Aug 2026

随着美联储加息概率上升及贸易关税扰动市场，欧元兑美元跌破1.1600

美联储杰克逊霍尔偏鹰推升9月加息概率至45.7%，美元反弹压低EUR/USD跌破1.1600。紧盯HICP与非农引爆波动：Put 1.1550、跌破1.1570可空，看1.1350。

29

Aug 2026

比特币跌破8万美元，杰克逊霍尔会议释出美联储偏鹰信号后金价回落

杰克逊霍尔偏鹰言论引爆风险回吐：比特币冲81,500受阻跌破8万，黄金失守4,600。9月季节性偏弱，波动料升；建议用保护性看跌期权/熊 put spread 防御。

29

Aug 2026

澳元/美元走低，鹰派沃什推高美联储9月加息概率；澳洲联储收紧政策提供支撑

AUD/USD冲高0.7206后回落至0.7170：Warsh鹰派言论令9月加息概率飙至60%推升美元；RBA通胀仍顽固支撑澳元。关注0.7110支撑与0.7206阻力，适合卖波动。

28

Aug 2026

沃什在杰克逊霍尔年会未作指引，升息概率上升、收益率曲线趋平

Warsh 杰克逊霍尔不放风，市场对 9 月加息押注升破 40%。曲线扁平、美元走强、金价与比特币走弱。策略：股市买保护性看跌，做空短端，美元多、黄金与英镑偏空。

28

Aug 2026

沃什鹰派言论后美元反弹；交易员关注美元指数（DXY）重测，数据潮来袭

Warsh杰克逊霍尔放鹰助美元指数反弹，或再测100关口；通胀与就业数据成关键催化。CFTC净多回落但仍偏多，建议逢回调做多美元、用看涨价差控风险。

28

Aug 2026

美联储主席讲话偏重程序细节，促使期货市场上调9月加息概率，带动短端收益率走高

鲍威尔讲话无前瞻指引却触发市场重估：9月加息概率飙至55%+，前端利率上行、曲线趋平。短端波动或放大，策略聚焦近端IV错价与道指53,800阻力做空。

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