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1

Sep 2026

欧元区失业率升至6.4%，加剧市场对欧洲央行转向鸽派的预期

欧元区7月失业率意外升至6.4%高过预期，释放劳动力转弱警讯。市场押注ECB更鸽、9月降息概率飙升；关注做多Euribor期货，并布局EUR/USD看跌期权。

1

Sep 2026

欧元区通胀回升、核心通胀降温，强化市场押注欧洲央行降息并拖累欧元

欧元区8月通胀回升但核心降至2.4%低预期，欧洲央行9月降息空间大。机会：做多Euribor、买Bund看涨；留意美数据，布局EUR/USD看跌瞄准1.0800。

1

Sep 2026

英国M4货币供应增速7月放缓至4.5%，强化市场对英伦银行降息的押注

英国M4年增速7月降至4.5%引爆降息想象：流动性收紧、通胀或温和。策略上可做多SONIA期货，外汇端买入GBP/USD看跌期权防回落1.25。

1

Sep 2026

在地缘政治风险支撑下，布伦特原油守稳关键移动平均线之上，上行偏向维持不变

钩子：布油多头能否再冲一波？布伦特稳守85/84美元关键均线支撑，测试下降趋势线；上方95美元缺口阻力待破，若突破看102美元，进而108/110美元。

1

Sep 2026

奥地利失业人数突破30万，8月上升加剧欧元下行压力并强化降息押注

奥地利8月失业人数跳升至311.4千人，重返30万上方，凸显欧元区裂痕扩散。高利率滞后冲击劳动市场，欧元承压、降息预期升温，股债波动机会浮现。

1

Sep 2026

华侨银行上调2026年底布伦特油价预测至每桶80美元，因中东干扰收紧柴油供需平衡

中东冲突拖累供给，OCBC上调2026年底布油目标至80美元；布油站上90。库存下滑、运费升、柴油成瓶颈。策略：布油买看涨，柴油裂解做多，期权用价差/铁秃鹰应对高波动。

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