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Sep 2026

美国JOLTS职位空缺不及预期，强化市场对美联储降息及收益率走低的押注

美国7月JOLTS职位空缺727.1万，低于预期730万，劳市降温信号再现。债市或押注更鸽降息，美债收益率承压；关注短端期权、标普价差、美元看跌与黄金多头。

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Sep 2026

美国7月建筑支出下滑0.5%，强化美联储提前降息理据

美国7月建筑支出意外跌0.5%，高利率开始降温实体经济！市场或押注更快降息、收益率下行；关注SOFR期货与美债期权，ITB保护性Put对冲波动。

1

Sep 2026

美国ISM制造业PMI不及预期引发美联储鸽派押注打压美元并推升美债

ISM制造业PMI 8月跌至54.6爆冷，扩张放缓引发降息押注升温。交易员可关注美债期权、美元看跌、黄金多头及VIX对冲。

1

Sep 2026

德国央行行长纳格尔：经济增长展现韧性、通胀降温；G20就协调干预日元展开讨论

纳格尔称全球仍增长、通胀与服务业降温且无二轮效应；偏好协调干预。驱动降息预期：做多Euribor、布局EUR/USD看跌价差，及欧股Euro Stoxx50长天期看涨期权。

1

Sep 2026

大华银行警示：通胀预测突破容忍区间，印度央行或自2026年12月起连续加息

印度通胀或于3QFY27破6%并拖累实际利率转负，UOB料RBI自2026年12月起连两次各升息25bp；建议做多1年OIS付息、放空中短债期货，并战术做多卢比。

1

Sep 2026

英镑/美元跌破1.3550，鹰派美联储言论提振美元，但多头趋势仍维持

英镑/美元跌破1.3550，Fed主席沃什杰克逊霍尔鹰派推高加息预期与美债收益率，美元走强。衍生品宜短线布局看跌，但守100日线，回调或为中期买点。

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