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4

Sep 2026

加拿大艾维采购经理指数（Ivey PMI）飙升至64.3，超预期并重塑加元与利率预期

加拿大艾维PMI 8月飙至64.3、远超预期56.2，经济意外转强！加元与短端利率或重估：可布局USD/CAD短期期权多头、做空BAX，并关注TSX能源看涨机会。

4

Sep 2026

美国非农就业数据超预期；CPI公布前，美联储9月加息概率小幅上升

非农新增16.2万推升加息押注：9月定价升至16bp。失业率4.1%、薪资温和但集中。市场转盯CPI（整体0.4%、核心0.2%），建议做空SOFR、买美元期权与TLT跨式。

4

Sep 2026

英镑收窄跌幅，强劲美国就业数据提振美元，美联储加息概率依然坚挺

美国强劲非农短线拉升美元，GBP/USD探1.3482后回升。市场押注9月加息概率升至60%，焦点转向下周CPI/PPI；建议铁鹰、跨式捕捉波动。

4

Sep 2026

墨西哥比索走强，随美方贸易谈判推进，美元/墨西哥比索在PMI下滑之际跌破17.00

美元/墨西哥比索跌破17关口：墨美加紧G20贸易磋商、关税压缩中国车进口稳住比索；惟制造业PMI转弱，反转风险升温，期权对冲与双向波动策略受捧。

4

Sep 2026

欧元/英镑因欧元区零售销售疲软走低，欧洲央行与英国央行政策分化仍为市场焦点

EUR/GBP回吐至0.8590，欧元区零售疲弱仍难改ECB加息、BoE按兵不动的分化。把握回调：买10月看涨/牛市价差，瞄准0.8700与预算案前波动上升。

4

Sep 2026

美国工资增速维持在0.3%，市场权衡美联储降息概率及波动前景

薪资数据“刚刚好”！美国8月平均时薪环比+0.3%符合预期，通胀与美联储解读有限；VIX料回落，偏好卖方期权；降息25bp概率75%，科技成长股喘息。

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