Key Points
- UKOUSD trades at $106.969, down $1.829 (-1.68%), with a high of $108.718 and low of $105.433.
- Brent crude futures fell during early Monday trading after US President Donald Trump announced an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was awaiting details of the proposed agreement, while Russia had not publicly confirmed its participation.
- Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, including deadly strikes on Riyadh’s international airport, continue to raise concerns about regional stability and energy supply disruptions.
- Traders are monitoring US inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s October policy meeting and further developments affecting Russian and Middle Eastern energy supplies.
Market Move
Oil prices retreated on Monday, 12 October 2026, as US President Donald Trump’s announcement of an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine raised expectations of fewer disruptions to Russian energy supplies. Brent crude futures fell to $106.969, down 1.68%. The announcement followed a separate US-Russia agreement intended to bring additional Russian diesel supplies to the market. However, the ceasefire announcement has not yet been translated into a confirmed agreement between Kyiv and Moscow.
Despite the broader decline, UKOUSD recovered from around $106.40 towards $107.00 during the visible trading window. The rebound shows that buyers remain active at lower price levels, although the wider decline suggests that selling pressure has not fully subsided.
Why Traders Are Watching
If the proposed Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire is implemented, it may ease supply concerns that have supported oil prices in recent months. However, uncertainty remains over its implementation. Without confirmation from both governments, the market could quickly reverse its response to the announcement.
At the same time, Houthi forces have intensified attacks on Saudi Arabia. Strikes on Riyadh’s international airport over the weekend killed at least 12 people on Saturday, with another fatality reported following Sunday’s attack. The attacks have renewed concerns about security across the region, particularly as tanker incidents near the Strait of Hormuz continue to threaten energy transportation routes.
Although the latest attacks have not been shown to cause equivalent losses in oil production, the risk of disruptions to shipping, insurance costs and export infrastructure remains a source of support for crude prices.
Key Trading Levels
| Price level | Type | Technical significance |
| $107.00–$107.05 | Resistance | Recent intraday peak and psychological barrier |
| $106.85–$106.90 | Immediate resistance | Area around the recent price consolidation |
| $106.80 | Immediate support | Recent breakout and moving-average region |
| $106.60–$106.65 | Secondary support | Earlier intraday consolidation zone |
| $106.40–$106.45 | Lower support | Lower boundary of the visible trading range |
UKOUSD recovered from approximately $106.40 towards $107.00. The $107.00 level is the immediate resistance to monitor. Prices briefly moved above this area before retreating, indicating that sellers remain active near the upper boundary of the visible range.
On the downside, $106.80 represents the first area where buyers may attempt to defend the recovery. A break below this zone could expose $106.60, followed by the earlier trading lows near $106.40.
Bullish and Bearish Setups
| Scenario | Trigger | Potential targets | Invalidation signal |
| Bullish breakout | Sustained move above $107.05 | $107.20, then $107.40 | Reversal below $106.85 |
| Bullish recovery | Price holds above $106.80 | $106.95–$107.05 | Break below $106.60 |
| Bearish rejection | Failure to break $107.00–$107.05 | $106.80, then $106.60 | Sustained breakout above $107.05 |
| Bearish breakdown | Sustained move below $106.60 | $106.45, then $106.40 | Recovery above $106.80 |
A bullish scenario could develop if UKOUSD maintains support above $106.80 and successfully breaks through the $107.00–$107.05 resistance region. Such a move would suggest that short-term buying momentum is strengthening, potentially opening the way towards $107.20 and $107.40.
A bearish scenario could emerge if UKOUSD fails to overcome resistance near $107.00 and retreats below $106.80. A subsequent break beneath $106.60 would weaken the intraday recovery and bring $106.45–$106.40 into focus.
Disclaimer
The price levels and market scenarios above reflect the author’s assessment at the time of writing. They do not represent financial advice or an official recommendation from VT Markets. Traders should conduct their own analysis and manage risk carefully.
UKOUSD Prediction: What Could Drive It Up or Down?
Attacks on energy facilities, prolonged tanker disruptions or a breakdown in ceasefire negotiations could revive supply fears. Stronger-than-expected global demand could also support prices.
On the other hand, confirmation of a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire, additional Russian fuel supplies, improving Middle Eastern shipping conditions or weaker economic data could ease supply concerns and weigh on prices.
Beyond geopolitics, traders are also preparing for US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled for Wednesday, 14 October. Higher-than-expected inflation could reinforce expectations of restrictive Federal Reserve policy and support the US dollar, potentially adding pressure to dollar-denominated commodities such as oil.
The wider picture remains vulnerable to abrupt reversals as changes in physical oil supplies, diplomatic negotiations and Middle Eastern security conditions can shift market expectations.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Why is UKOUSD falling today?
UKOUSD is under pressure as President Donald Trump’s announcement of a proposed Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire raises expectations of fewer disruptions to Russian energy supplies. The announcement has reduced some immediate supply concerns, although the agreement has not been confirmed by both countries.
Will oil prices continue to fall?
Further declines are possible if the proposed Russia-Ukraine ceasefire is implemented and more Russian energy supplies become available. However, renewed attacks on Saudi Arabia and ongoing shipping risks near the Strait of Hormuz could limit losses or trigger another rebound.
How does US inflation affect UKOUSD?
Higher US inflation can influence Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and the value of the US dollar. A stronger dollar may weigh on dollar-denominated oil prices, while concerns about slowing economic activity can weaken expectations for crude demand. Supply disruptions can offset these influences.
Can traders buy and sell UKOUSD on VT Markets?
VT Markets offers crude oil CFD trading, allowing eligible clients to take long or short positions without owning physical oil.
