Insights 
VT 
Overview
- Focus this week: US Core PCE, GDP, and CPI reports could steer sentiment on rate expectations.
- Traders watch gold at USD 4,130–4,290 and Bitcoin’s breakout above USD 115,000.
- Central-bank speeches from the Fed, ECB, and BoJ are likely to add volatility before the month-end.
- Equity indices hover near record highs amid thin liquidity and earnings fatigue.
At a Glance
Markets enter the week on edge as the US dollar index (USDX) consolidates around 98 after a mild rebound from last week’s lows. Investors are weighing the possibility that resilient US data could delay policy easing into 2026.
Meanwhile, risk assets remain buoyant, supported by optimism around artificial intelligence and improving corporate earnings, though many traders are questioning the sustainability of recent rallies.
Gold and crypto markets are testing upside thresholds while equities flirt with all-time highs.
With major inflation prints and GDP data due in coming days, volatility could return swiftly if numbers diverge from expectations.
Key Symbols to Watch
XAUUSD | BTCUSD | EURUSD | NAS100 | USOIL
Upcoming Events
| Date | Currency | Event | Forecast | Previous | Analyst Remarks |
| 20 Oct | NZD | CPI q/q | 0.80% | 0.50% | Upside surprise could lift NZDUSD before potential retracement. |
| 21 Oct | CAD | CPI m/m | -0.10% | -0.10% | Stable inflation may keep BoC policy expectations anchored. |
| 22 Oct | GBP | CPI y/y | 4.00% | 3.80% | Rising inflation could boost GBPUSD if consolidation continues. |
| 24 Oct | USD | CPI y/y | 2.90% | — | Key inflation gauge for Fed policy path. |
| 24 Oct | USD | Flash Services PMI | 53.5 | 54.2 | Softening momentum may weigh on USD into the weekend. |
For full view of upcoming economic events, check out VT Market’s Economic Calendar.
Key Movements of the Week
Gold (XAUUSD)
- Gold eased from USD 4,380 to the 4,130–4,290 range amid dollar strength.
- A break above 4,380 could target 4,587, while downside support lies at 4,000–4,130.
- Traders eye US inflation data for near-term direction.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)
- Bitcoin broke USD 107,240 and tested 108,600, signalling strong bullish momentum.
- Sustained consolidation above 108,000 could open 115,000 next.
- Profit-taking risk increases if equities lose steam.
S&P 500 (SP500)
- The index rebounded impulsively after failing to close below 6,557, now testing 6,740.
- Continued consolidation may precede another push toward 6,900.
- Traders monitor GDP and earnings sentiment for cues.
US Dollar Index (USDX)
- USDX rebounded from 97.85 support and now consolidates near 98.45.
- Strong GDP or PCE data could lift the dollar further.
- Weak prints may renew pressure toward 97.00.
Crude Oil (USOIL)
- Prices remain range-bound between USD 53.00–58.80, with limited directional conviction.
- OPEC discipline and winter demand could stabilise prices.
- Watch US inventory data for breakout signals.
Bottom Line
- The week is packed with inflation and GDP data that could redefine rate expectations.
- Gold and Bitcoin remain key barometers for risk appetite amid diverging policy paths.
- All eyes on US Core PCE and FOMC guidance to set November’s trading tone.
