Insights 
VT 
Everything that glitters isn’t just gold. Silver’s taking on a new shine on the market now.
Once seen only as hedges for turmoil, they have become core assets. Since 2023, gold has surged +103% while the S&P 500 rose +72%.
In 2025 alone, gold is up +40% and silver +44%. Gold has smashed through $3,600 per ounce to record highs, and silver sits at $41, its strongest level since 2011.
The message is clear: traders are rethinking where stability lies in a world of deficits, inflation, and political risk.
The Three Pillars Driving the Rally
This rally stands on three forces. First, deficit spending has swelled the U.S. fiscal gap to nearly $2 trillion a year, flooding markets with Treasuries and driving yields to 11-year highs.
Bonds look less appealing when real returns are squeezed, so capital is shifting into hard assets.
Second, gold’s correlation with equities has changed. In 2024, it hit 0.91 with the S&P 500, showing gold is no longer just insurance against weakness, but also a parallel hedge against inflation and debt-fuelled growth.
Finally, safe-haven demand has taken on new weight as bonds lose their role as the anchor of portfolios.
Central Banks Lead the Shift
Central banks are fuelling the move. For the first time since 1996, gold holdings now outweigh U.S. Treasuries in global reserves.
Gold makes up about 20% of foreign exchange reserves, surpassing the euro at 16%. The motivation is straightforward: Treasuries and access to SWIFT can be frozen, while gold in a domestic vault cannot.
Buying has been relentless, topping 1,000 tonnes annually for three years in a row, more than double the pace of the prior decade.
China leads the charge, adding every month, while Russia, Turkey, and India build reserves too.
A World Gold Council survey shows 95% of central banks expect global holdings to rise further, with nearly half planning to increase their own.
This steady wave of official-sector demand suggests that gold’s strength is more than cyclical, it reflects a structural rebalancing of global reserves.
Silver’s Dual Role
Silver is riding both investment flows and industrial demand. ETFs added nearly 1,000 tonnes in June 2025 alone, pushing holdings to around 24,000 tonnes.
Retail demand for coins and bars is still strong, while lease rates spiked above 5% from near zero, signalling scarcity. A $1.20 gap has also opened between COMEX futures and London spot.
Beyond investment, silver is vital to the green economy, used in solar panels, EVs, and electronics. This industrial base gives it a strong demand floor.
Forward Path for Prices
The coming months will hinge on inflation and central bank policy. If inflation stays high and the Fed eases, gold could push toward $4,000 by the end of 2025.
If inflation cools and real rates rise, prices may consolidate. Silver will likely follow gold but with sharper swings. A sustained break above $40 could pave the way to $50, last seen in 2011, though weaker industrial demand would expose it to sharper pullbacks.
For now, the forecast points to resilience. Gold remains well supported by deficits, inflation risks, and central bank buying.
Silver, with its mix of monetary and industrial demand, carries more volatility but also the potential for outsized gains if momentum holds.
Key Movements of the Week
With that backdrop in place, markets are now reacting in real time, and the week’s movements are already drawing clear battle lines across currencies, commodities, and equities.
The U.S. Dollar Index has retreated from 97.90 and could slip through 96.834 if weakness deepens. EURUSD is edging higher from 1.1675 with scope to reach 1.17795, while GBPUSD is climbing from 1.3510 and testing 1.35901.
USDJPY has fallen from 148.10, with a close below 147.058 opening the way to 146.298. USDCHF is also soft, threatening 0.79148 if it breaks 0.7957.
Commodity currencies are gaining ground. AUDUSD is aiming for 0.6690, NZDUSD is pushing toward 0.6000, and USDCAD has slipped under 1.38574 with 1.3820 now in focus.
Oil remains volatile, bouncing from $62.70 before pulling back at $64.35. A drop through $61.804 could bring $58.40 into play.
Gold is consolidating with support at $3,585 and $3,550, while a breakout could target $3,835. Silver has held above $40.511, with bulls eyeing $42.55.
U.S. equities remain buoyant, with the S&P 500 testing 6,870 and the Nasdaq looking to 25,450.
Crypto is firm, with Bitcoin bouncing from 110,250 toward 116,200 and Ethereum breaking higher with 4,585 in sight. Natural gas remains under pressure near 2.97.
On the equity front, UnitedHealth is holding above 326.22 with an intrinsic value closer to 410, while Novo Nordisk has rallied from 52.80 toward a fair value of 90. Earnings momentum is keeping both names supported.
Key Events of the Week
Markets face a packed week of data and central bank decisions that could shift momentum across currencies and commodities.
On Tuesday, September 16, attention turns to Canada’s median CPI y/y and U.S. retail sales m/m. For the CAD, a hot inflation print could reinforce expectations that the Bank of Canada stays cautious, giving the loonie a lift.
For the USD, retail sales will be closely watched as a barometer of consumer strength, where any slowdown could weigh on the dollar.
Wednesday, September 17 brings the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate decision. Markets are split on whether policymakers can hold steady or hint at easing, given growth headwinds.
The CAD is likely to stay sensitive to both the policy tone and inflation context.
Thursday, September 18 is stacked with event risk. The U.S. Federal Reserve announces its federal funds rate, where traders will parse not only the decision but the language around growth and inflation. New Zealand releases its GDP q/q, a key test for the NZD after recent soft spots in data.
The Bank of England also sets its official bank rate, where the balance between inflation control and growth concerns will be critical for GBP traders.
Friday, September 19 closes the week with the Bank of Japan’s policy rate. Even small shifts in tone can rattle JPY markets, given the yen’s sensitivity to global yield differentials. Any signal that the BOJ may adjust its stance would reverberate across FX markets.
