JP Morgan maintains a pessimistic outlook on the U.S. dollar, citing decreasing U.S. growth, strong global support policies, and reduced interest in U.S. assets. The bank lists several ongoing factors for its negative view, such as the slowing U.S. economy, international fiscal and monetary actions, and low energy prices boosting demand. JP Morgan anticipates a possible long-term decline for the dollar, potentially leading to a “dollar discount.” Recent indicators, like jobless claims and auto sales, suggest the dollar could weaken further. They believe U.S. growth might slow more than in other developed and emerging economies this year, despite mixed payroll data. Looking to 2025, JP Morgan predicts a slowdown in the U.S. but expects gains for currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars, the Norwegian krone, euro, and yen. Stronger performances are expected for currencies in emerging markets. They note a notable change in market expectations with the Federal Reserve’s terminal rate decreasing and the U.S. bond term premium rising, which they describe as unfavorable for the USD. In essence, the analysis signals a bearish trajectory for the U.S. dollar based on a mixture of economic signals and market positioning. The projection leans on weaker domestic output in the United States paired with more proactive measures abroad. According to the assessment, factors such as fading demand for American assets and falling energy prices create a toxic mix for the dollar’s relative strength in the months ahead. While recent employment and spending figures have not yet painted a unified picture, the analyst team still identifies broad signs of deceleration. Metrics like initial unemployment claims and subdued auto purchases suggest domestic appetite may be cooling. When viewed alongside expected shifts in policy stances elsewhere, and rising appetite for non-dollar assets, the pressure builds. It’s not just the data pointing one way; perception across markets has also pivoted—rate expectations are coming down, and longer-dated yields are drifting up, which can discourage capital flows into the U.S. For those of us focused on rate differentials and their consequences, the narrowing gap between projected central bank stances is clear. Cuts in U.S. rate forecasts, even before policy action materializes, shift interest away from dollar-long exposure. At the same time, various central banks—especially in economies dependent on commodities—are showing comparatively firmer footing, creating an environment where carry trades refocus elsewhere. Moreover, the reference to a “dollar discount” hints at an idea that the valuation premium the dollar has carried for years may now reverse. This change in sentiment can add momentum to positioning flips, especially among leveraged players. As the forward-looking lens extends into 2025, currencies more tied to global demand—such as those of smaller export-focused nations—begin to look more attractive in comparative terms. Given current cross-asset signals, attention should now shift to fluctuations in global yield curves and how they reflect shifts in perceived real rates and inflation premiums. The steadier backdrop outside of the U.S., particularly with more persistent fiscal support in Europe and Asia, may anchor the case for rotating currency baskets away from defensive USD holdings toward more procyclical alternatives. As premium erodes, strategies that maintained long-dollar bias purely on policy divergence assumptions require reevaluation. With the Fed’s peak rate likely reached, the market’s push toward relative valuation becomes more pronounced. From this angle, bid dynamics start favoring pairs that benefit from ordinary rate spreads and stronger underlying data.

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