Policy

3 July 2026
Italy May Retail Sales Beat Forecast, Firming Eurozone Demand and Testing ECB Cut Expectations

Italy’s May retail sales beat forecasts, signaling resilient demand—supporting ECB patience, modest euro strength, and Italy assets.

3 July 2026
Wells Fargo Sees Fed Holding Rates as June Minutes Tested for Shift Back to Hikes

Wells Fargo expects Fed hold; June minutes may hint hikes, inflation seen supply-driven, fading; volatility selling.

3 July 2026
Turkey’s June inflation edges above forecasts, reinforcing expectations of CBRT holding rates at 50%

Turkey’s June CPI rose 32.11% y/y, slightly above forecasts, keeping CBRT hawkish and rates high.

3 July 2026
Dollar slips as weak US payrolls cool Fed hike odds and lift equities, gold

Dollar slips after weak jobs data cuts July Fed hike odds; stocks, euro, gold rise globally.

3 July 2026
PBoC sets firmer USD/CNY fix below estimates, signalling managed yuan strength amid softer growth

PBoC set stronger USD/CNY fix yet weaker than estimates, signaling managed yuan stability amid soft growth.

3 July 2026
China lets yuan rise against North Asian peers to curb chip import costs, blunting undervaluation claims

China lets yuan rise, cutting semiconductor import costs; REER gains lag, undervaluation claims weaken, reversal risk.

3 July 2026
BNY says stronger yuan curbs undervaluation claims as China boosts North Asia semiconductor imports

BNY says yuan strength aids chip imports and counters undervaluation claims; reversal risk rises as domestic production ramps.

3 July 2026
NZD/USD rises as softer US payrolls weigh on dollar and shift Fed rate expectations

NZD/USD rose to 0.5705 as weak US payrolls boosted dovish Fed bets, supporting Kiwi upside.

3 July 2026
US 4-week Treasury bill yield slips to 3.605% as markets price in nearer Fed cut

Treasury 4-week bill yield dips to 3.605%, hinting July Fed cut odds; traders favor rate-sensitive equities.

3 July 2026
Commerzbank Sees Softer US Jobs Data Keeping Fed Rates on Hold Through 2026

Commerzbank says weak June jobs, lower oil, easing inflation make Fed rate hike unlikely; policy steady.

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