Policy

24 July 2026
ECB Holds Rates at 2.25% as Lagarde Keeps Options Open Ahead of September Hike Expectations

ECB holds rates at 2.25%, signals optionality; traders may position for underpriced September 25bp hike.

24 July 2026
Markets brace for BEA’s US core PCE methodology revision, with limited impact on inflation trend

BEA revises PCE methodology Sept 30; core May 2026 ~15bp lower, minimal impact; traders anticipate volatility, mispricings.

24 July 2026
TD Securities sees oil-driven July Fed hike pricing as overstated, backs receiving July OIS

TD Securities sees July Fed hike pricing overdone; recommends receiving July OIS amid oil-driven geopolitical risk.

24 July 2026
Lagarde Signals Unanimous ECB Hold as July Hike Talk Raises Data-Driven Volatility Risks

Lagarde held ECB rates unanimously; no guidance, data-driven September. Traders hedge hawkish risk, expect volatility, widen spreads.

24 July 2026
Lagarde Says ECB Holds Rates as Energy and Climate Risks Keep Inflation Bias to Upside

Lagarde said ECB held rates steady in July, warning energy shocks and climate events could raise inflation.

24 July 2026
Lagarde Holds ECB Rates as Energy Inflation Persists, Euro Seen Firmer and AI Boosts Services

ECB holds rates as activity tentatively improves; energy shock keeps inflation high, boosting euro, bond, energy volatility, tech.

24 July 2026
Canada EI beneficiaries flat in May, fuelling dovish Bank of Canada bets and CAD downside

May’s EI beneficiaries held flat at 0% after April’s -0.5%, signaling cooling jobs, weaker CAD outlook.

23 July 2026
Mexico’s Early-July Inflation Misses Forecast, Stoking Banxico Rate-Cut Bets and Peso Watch

Mexico’s first-half July inflation rose 0.07%, below forecasts, boosting Banxico easing bets and MXN swap focus.

23 July 2026
Mexico core inflation meets forecasts, reinforcing Banxico rate-cut path and shaping swaps, bonds and peso options

Mexico’s core inflation matched forecasts, supporting Banxico rate cuts and favoring TIIE receivers, Mbonos longs, USD/MXN calls.

23 July 2026
India’s M3 growth eases to 12.5%, signalling tighter liquidity and potential volatility for banks and derivatives

India’s M3 growth slowed to 12.5%, signaling tighter liquidity, pressuring banks, boosting volatility, and options costs.

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