Policy

25 July 2026
Rabobank sees Bank of England holding 3.75% through 2026 as markets price tighter policy

Rabobank expects Bank Rate held at 3.75% through 2026, unless energy shocks revive inflation and wages.

24 July 2026
UK CPI Undershoots MPC Forecast as Oil Shock Threatens Return to 3% Inflation

UK CPI cooled to 2.6%, but rising energy shocks may push inflation above 3%, reshaping trades.

24 July 2026
Mexico Unemployment Ticks Up to 2.8% as Banxico Rate-Cut Expectations Build

Mexico unemployment rose to 2.8% in June, signaling labor cooling, potential Banxico cuts, and peso weakness.

24 July 2026
ECB holds deposit rate at 2.25% as markets price September hike; Deutsche Bank flags further risk

ECB held rates at 2.25%, signaling September hike; futures price 82% odds, boosting yield and euro.

24 July 2026
White House revives Section 301 tariffs as markets brace for hawkish Fed guidance and higher oil prices

White House reissues tariffs via Section 301, boosting lasting risk; oil spikes and hawkish Fed drive hedging trades.

24 July 2026
Türkiye’s central bank holds policy rate at 37% as tight liquidity keeps effective funding near 40%

Türkiye’s central bank held policy at 37%, keeping effective funding near 40%, boosting carry trades amid inflation risks.

24 July 2026
ECB Holds Rates as Markets Await Eurozone Flash GDP and Inflation for September Hike Signals

ECB holds rates, awaits oil-driven inflation outlook; July GDP and CPI flashes may sway September hike odds.

24 July 2026
German GfK confidence misses forecasts, darkening euro outlook and bolstering Bund rally bets

Germany’s August GfK confidence missed forecasts at -29.6, pressuring euro, stocks, and boosting Bund rally bets.

24 July 2026
Bank Indonesia holds at 5.75%, leans on capital-flow incentives to support rupiah

Bank Indonesia held rates at 5.75%, supporting rupiah via capital-flow incentives, hedging cuts, and liquidity tools.

24 July 2026
Kansas Fed factory index slips in July, signalling softer momentum and potential easing in rate expectations

Kansas City manufacturing softened in July; index fell to 17, signaling slower growth and lower volatility.

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