The Australian dollar held above 0.7000 against the US dollar for a fourth session, with AUD/USD around 0.7024–0.7028 and up 0.11% as trading turned choppy before the Federal Reserve decision and Australia’s CPI release. The US Dollar Index rose 0.36% to 102.16 even as US data were mixed: Conference Board consumer confidence climbed from 82.2 in September to 91.7 in October, durable goods orders increased 1.8% after 0.1%, and ADP employment change came in at 16.8K versus 17.5K previously.
Monetary Policy Expectations in the US and Australia
Markets were positioned for the Fed to keep rates steady, while pricing implied an 82% probability of a 25-basis-point hike in December, with guidance also tied to core PCE inflation and GDP. In Australia, attention turned to an RBA governor speech and September CPI, where trimmed mean inflation is forecast at 0.3% MoM against 0.2% prior, and the annual rate is watched against August’s 3.6% for policy implications.
Technical Overview and Key Levels for AUD/USD
Technically, AUD/USD remained below the 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs near 0.7072, with RSI at 52.6; resistance sits at 0.7072, 0.7105 and 0.7198, while support is seen near 0.6920 and 0.6353.
