AUD/USD ticked up 0.08% on Friday to around 0.7035, supported by firmer pricing for a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate rise after hotter inflation data. Australia’s CPI rose 4.3% year-on-year in September, up from 4% in August and above a 4.2% consensus, keeping pressure on the RBA ahead of its 3 November decision. Market-implied expectations also shifted: the ASX RBA Rate Tracker shows an 80% chance of a move to 4.85%, compared with 60% before the CPI release.
Fed Policy And Market Reactions
In the US, the Federal Reserve (Fed) held its benchmark rate at 3.75%–4.00% on Wednesday and reiterated a data-dependent stance, while comments from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin pointed to ongoing cost pressures and potential inflation impulses linked to artificial intelligence investment. On the charts, the pair held above the 100-period SMA at 0.7032 and the 200-period SMA at 0.7026, with RSI (14) near 52 and resistance levels at 0.7040, 0.7055 and 0.7068. Support is seen at 0.7032 and 0.7026, then 0.7010 and 0.6994.
