Insights 
VT 
In 2025, global markets are navigating a pivotal phase of economic and geopolitical shifts that directly influence commodity prices. A relative slowdown in global growth, coupled with isolated tensions in key oil-producing regions, has heightened market uncertainty and investor caution. Meanwhile, the monetary policies of major central banks and currency fluctuations continue to shape trends across crude oil, precious metals, and agricultural commodities.
The fourth quarter of 2025 marks a crucial period for evaluating these dynamics. Investors are positioning ahead of year-end, using inflation data, energy demand forecasts, and industrial productivity figures to refine hedging and allocation strategies.
Crude Oil
Crude oil prices — both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) — are expected to experience moderate fluctuations in Q4 2025. This stems from the seasonal transition between refinery maintenance periods in the autumn and the onset of the winter heating season. Refining activity typically slows during maintenance, then rises again with increased heating fuel demand.
Global supply and demand remain in a delicate balance. OPEC+ continues to manage production flexibly to protect market share while avoiding sharp price spikes, while stable U.S. shale output helps anchor supply.
Geopolitical tensions persist as a key risk factor, particularly in the Middle East and along shipping routes through the Black Sea and Red Sea. Even in the absence of major supply disruptions, higher freight costs and rerouted shipments can tighten effective supply. Ceasefires tend to ease risk premiums, but weather disruptions — such as late-season storms in the Gulf of Mexico — remain unpredictable.
Producers are actively hedging while consumers seek protection from potential price swings, creating an environment of cautious optimism. However, slower growth in Europe and Asia continues to weigh on energy demand, capping upside potential for prices.
Natural Gas and Derivatives
Natural gas markets typically see heightened volatility toward the end of the year as winter demand ramps up across the Northern Hemisphere. Prices for refined petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel remain broadly stable, supported by steady crude benchmarks. However, local tax adjustments and regulatory fees in some regions may introduce price disparities between markets.
Precious and Industrial Metals
Gold
Gold continues to serve as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical uncertainty. Its gradual ascent through 2025 reflects persistent inflation concerns and elevated interest rates in major economies, particularly the United States.
As Q4 progresses, both risks and opportunities are emerging. Rising geopolitical tensions and economic instability support the metal’s upside, potentially pushing it toward new record highs. However, gold’s final trajectory will depend heavily on U.S. dollar strength and interest rate trends. Staying alert to macroeconomic releases and central bank commentary remains key for investors using gold as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation.
Silver
Silver’s price performance is increasingly driven by industrial demand, especially from the technology and renewable energy sectors. Prices surpassed $51 per ounce in October, supported by robust industrial usage. This upward momentum is expected to persist through Q4 2025, though volatility tied to supply-demand fluctuations may cause intermittent pullbacks.
Industrial Metals
Palladium, heavily used in the automotive sector (around 80% of demand), is likely to trade sideways through Q4. Vehicle sales have largely returned to pre-pandemic levels, and while this supports demand, mixed global growth and trade policy uncertainty may offset gains.
Platinum has been one of 2025’s standout performers, surging more than 60% year-to-date to exceed $1,400 per ounce for the first time in three years. After years of stagnation, platinum’s recovery appears sustained, driven by increased industrial and investment demand amid constrained supply. It remains an attractive diversification asset within the precious metals basket.
Other base metals such as copper and aluminium are facing downward pressure due to weaker industrial demand from China and other major economies. Meanwhile, nickel and lithium continue to find support from the electric vehicle (EV) sector, helping offset some of the drag from broader economic headwinds and new U.S. trade tariffs.
Agricultural Commodities
Agricultural markets are undergoing regional and global shifts in Q4 2025, influenced by price volatility, climate conditions, and trade policies — particularly U.S. tariffs.
Grains
Wheat prices are expected to remain under pressure as global supply rises, weighing on farm margins. Futures remain near five-year lows, indicating a persistent glut and weak price momentum. Corn faces similar headwinds from higher output and inventory levels, though sudden demand changes or geopolitical developments could spark short-term rallies.
Rice prices are forecast to stay relatively stable, with minor fluctuations tied to weather conditions, agricultural output in key regions (such as the U.S., Brazil, and Russia), and ongoing trade policy adjustments.
Soybeans
Soybean prices are also expected to remain subdued in Q4 due to ample global supply and muted Chinese demand. Any improvement in U.S.–China trade relations could lend temporary support, but the broader tone remains cautious.
Outlook
As 2025 draws to a close, commodities are likely to experience moderate but uneven movements across sectors. Oil and gas will stay central to market sentiment, while gold and platinum maintain their appeal as hedges against macro and geopolitical risks. Agricultural and industrial metals will remain more sensitive to climate events, trade policies, and economic growth trends.
Investors should continue monitoring global economic data, production and inventory reports, and central bank actions to manage exposure and adapt to shifting conditions during this critical quarter.
