The euro opens the week with mild upward pressure against the U.S. dollar, trading near 1.1710–1.1725. While recent softness in the dollar has supported EUR/USD, macroeconomic uncertainty and cautious sentiment around Federal Reserve policy continue to shape price action. Traders are watching for clarity on rate cut expectations and upcoming U.S. data releases, which could influence dollar flows and risk appetite.
Macro drivers behind the EUR/USD movement
The strength of the euro is partly driven by speculation that the Federal Reserve may pivot toward easing, amid mixed signals from the U.S. labor market and inflation data. Meanwhile, European confidence indices remain subdued, adding a layer of caution to bullish euro bets. With central banks diverging in tone, EUR/USD remains sensitive to macro headlines and yield differentials.
Technical analysis: Resistance at 1.1740 in focus
EUR/USD is testing resistance near 1.1740, where sellers have consistently capped upside attempts. A clean breakout above this level could confirm renewed bullish momentum, targeting 1.1780–1.1820. On the flip side, failure to hold above 1.1600 may signal deeper correction toward 1.1550 or even 1.1460.
- Bullish setup: Look for long entries on breakout above 1.1740 or dips around 1.1600–1.1650 if support holds.
- Bearish setup: Look for short positions if price rejects 1.1740 or breaks below 1.1600.
- Range play: Tactical trades within 1.1600–1.1740 until breakout confirms direction.
- Resistance: 1.1740, 1.1780 and 1.1820
- Support: 1.1600, 1.1550 and 1.1460–1.1500
Momentum watch: Macro signals and technical confirmation
With EUR/USD hovering near a key resistance zone, traders should monitor volume, candle strength, and macro headlines for confirmation. A decisive move above 1.1740 could shift sentiment bullish, while rejection may reinforce range-bound conditions or trigger downside pressure.
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