Week Ahead: Gold Faces a New Test as US Jobs Reshape Fed Bets

Overview

• Markets enter September with the US labour market and Federal Reserve policy at the centre of attention.
• A weak July jobs report has raised questions about the strength of the US economy, while recent Fed comments have revived expectations for tighter policy.
• Nvidia’s latest results continue to support the AI-driven equity rally, although higher yields could test the strength of technology stocks.
• US payrolls, ISM surveys, the RBNZ and BoC decisions are among the key events for traders this week.

Markets Enter September With the Fed Back in Focus

September begins with markets caught between a weakening US labour market and renewed concerns over inflation.

The US economy shed 23,000 jobs in July, while previous payroll figures were revised lower by a combined 103,000. Although the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, the weaker employment data has raised questions over the strength of the US economy and the path for interest rates. Understanding how employment figures interact with macroeconomic policy is key when traders evaluate how to 5 steps to trade forex on news releases.

At the same time, higher energy prices and recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have kept inflation concerns alive. Markets are now looking to incoming data for clues on whether the Fed could consider another rate increase at its September meeting, putting Friday’s US jobs report at the centre of the week’s attention. For a broader perspective on policy impacts, see our guide on how to trade interest rate expectations.

US Jobs Data Could Set the Tone

Friday’s August payroll report will offer the clearest test of the US labour market before the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. July’s unexpected 23,000 decline in payrolls was far weaker than expected and came alongside large downward revisions to earlier months, increasing concerns that hiring momentum is fading.

Expectations for August remain modest, with forecasts ranging from around 25,000 to 58,000 jobs depending on the survey, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain around 4.1%. A stronger reading could reinforce expectations for higher US rates, potentially supporting the dollar and Treasury yields. To analyze how macro momentum impacts the greenback, learn why does DXY rise in uncertain markets. Conversely, a weaker result could have the opposite effect, particularly if it strengthens concerns over a sharper slowdown in employment.

Markets will also have several earlier data points to consider. JOLTS job openings, ADP employment and the ISM surveys could shift expectations ahead of Friday’s payrolls, making the entire week important for rate-sensitive assets. Traders navigating conflicting economic data can consult our practical overview on mixed economic signals: how investors should respond.

Gold Faces a Two-Way Macro Test

Gold enters September facing competing forces. A weaker labour market could increase expectations for easier monetary policy and lower yields, creating a more supportive backdrop for bullion. However, stronger inflation pressure could keep the Federal Reserve cautious, while higher Treasury yields and a firmer US dollar could weigh on gold. For a deeper breakdown of these dynamics, read US Treasury yields and gold: why traders watch real rates.

Higher oil prices add another complication. Rising energy costs can push inflation expectations higher and make it harder for central banks to ease policy, even as economic growth slows. Traders monitoring energy trends can explore the 10 factors that affect crude oil prices.

The technical picture from the latest VT Markets report provides key areas to watch as these macro forces play out. Gold has been moving lower from the 4,670 monitored area, with 4,490 identified as a potential support zone. A move above 4,773.46 could shift attention back towards further upside. For ongoing market forecasts, check out our XAUUSD price forecast & gold trading analysis.

For traders, the key question is whether incoming US data will be strong or weak enough to change expectations for monetary policy and, in turn, gold’s broader direction.

AI Keeps Equity Markets Supported

US equities continue to draw support from strong technology earnings and sustained investment in artificial intelligence. Nvidia reported quarterly revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year earlier, while data centre revenue reached $89 billion. The company also expects revenue of about $108 billion for the following quarter. For background on the market’s tech leaders, see our Nvidia stock price analysis & NVDA forecast.

The results helped ease concerns that major technology companies could begin slowing their AI spending. Nvidia expects supply constraints to remain an issue through fiscal 2028, pointing to continued demand for AI infrastructure. Learn more about broader tech exposure in our guide to technology ETFs: how they work, benefits, and risks.

That strength provides an important source of support for the broader equity market, although higher Treasury yields could put pressure on technology valuations. If stronger economic data leads markets to price fewer rate cuts or a more hawkish Fed, the benefit from strong AI earnings could be partly offset by tighter financial conditions.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq therefore enter September with strong earnings momentum, but face a more challenging interest-rate backdrop. Index traders can review our dedicated guides on how to trade NAS100 cash and the S&P 500 trading guide.

Central Banks Add to Volatility

The US is not the only central bank in focus this week. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to raise its cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, with markets watching closely for signals on whether further increases could follow.

The Bank of Canada, meanwhile, is expected to keep its policy rate at 2.25%. A Reuters poll found that all 35 economists surveyed expected the central bank to leave rates unchanged at its September meeting. Track currency impacts using our USD/CAD forecast & exchange rate analysis.

The contrasting policy outlooks could create further volatility across the New Zealand dollar and Canadian dollar, particularly if either central bank delivers guidance that differs from current market expectations. With several major economic releases and policy decisions ahead, September is shaping up to be a key month for currencies, bonds, equities and gold.

Key Symbols to Watch

USDX | NAS100 | SP500 | XAUUSD | BTCUSD

Upcoming Events

For a full view of upcoming economic events, check out VT Markets’ Economic Calendar.

Key Movements of The Week

USDX

• If USDX continues to consolidate, look for bullish price action around 99.15.
• Should USDX move higher, monitor price action around 99.80.

EURUSD

• If EURUSD continues to trade higher, look for bearish price action around 1.1640.
• Should EURUSD trade lower, monitor price action around 1.1530.

GBPUSD

• Watch for bullish price action around 99.15 if USDX continues to consolidate.
• If USDX moves higher, monitor price action around 99.80.

USDJPY

• Watch for bullish price action around 160.20 if USDJPY continues to trade higher.
• If USDJPY breaks above 160.871, monitor the price action for further upside.

XAUUSD (Gold)

• Watch for bullish price action around 4355 if Gold continues to trade lower.
• If Gold falls further, monitor price action around 4270 for signs of a correction.

SP500

• Watch for bullish price action around 7625 if SP500 continues to move lower.
• If selling pressure persists, monitor 7565 for bullish price action.

BTCUSD

• If Bitcoin trades higher, monitor price action after 82,834.21 as the swing high is taken out.
• If Bitcoin trades lower instead, watch 75,170 and 72,120 for subsequent price action.

Bottom Line

September begins with markets focused on whether the US economy is slowing fast enough to justify easier monetary policy, or whether persistent inflation and higher energy prices will keep the Federal Reserve cautious. US payrolls will be the week’s main test, while the ISM surveys, JOLTS, RBNZ and BoC decisions could create additional volatility across currencies, gold and equities. Strong AI earnings continue to support US stocks, but the next move will depend increasingly on how markets price the path of interest rates.

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