Marvell Stock Jumps After 2028 Revenue Forecast Rises to $20 Billion

Key Points

• Marvell raised its FY2028 revenue forecast to approximately $20 billion, up from $18 billion previously and above Wall Street expectations of about $18.2 billion.
• Management expects FY2028 revenue to grow roughly 67% year over year, with data centre revenue projected to increase around 80%.
• Marvell sees its AI-related market reaching roughly $400 billion by 2030.
• The company also introduced a much longer-term FY2031 revenue target of $70 billion to $90 billion, reflecting expectations for continued AI infrastructure investment.

Market Move

Marvell shares jumped as high as 9% as investors responded to strong revenue forecasts and long-term growth outlook. MRVL traded around $286, before building momentum and climbing through $288 and $290. Price eventually reaches an intraday chart peak close to $292, but the rally loses momentum shortly afterwards.

A relatively sharp reversal follows, bringing MRVL back towards the $286 area. Sellers briefly push the stock towards approximately $285, before buyers return late in the period.

Why Traders Are Watching

At its October 6 Investor Day, the company lifted its FY2028 revenue target from $18 billion to approximately $20 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $18.2 billion. The company attributed its accelerating growth to increasing demand across optical connectivity and AI data centres.

Marvell is also targeting $12 billion in custom-chip revenue by fiscal 2029, up from its previous $10 billion goal. Demand from hyperscale cloud companies remains central to this outlook as Amazon, Alphabet and other technology groups continue investing in proprietary AI infrastructure.

The longer-term projections have increased expectations. Management now sees FY2031 revenue reaching $70 billion to $90 billion, compared with fiscal 2026 revenue of about $8.2 billion. These numbers have heavily influenced share prices as MRVL has more than tripled in 2026, making future price movements very sensitive to whether Marvell can deliver against its ambitious numbers.

Key Trading Levels

The $286-$287 region is the immediate technical pivot. MRVL has recovered above its 9-period moving average, but price remains below the earlier $288-$292 trading zone. A sustained break above $288 could allow buyers to challenge $290 and $292 again. The much larger level is $300.76, Tuesday’s session high.

On the downside, $285 is the first area to watch. Losing that level could expose $284. A deeper reversal would shift attention towards the wider session’s lower levels.

Bullish and Bearish Setups

The immediate setup remains mixed after the sharp rally and subsequent retracement. MRVL has recovered from its local low and is trading near or just above the short-term moving average, but buyers have not yet regained the earlier momentum above $288.

A move through $288 would strengthen the short-term structure and put $290-$292 back in focus. Breaking $292 would provide a stronger indication that buyers are regaining control. Conversely, a failure to hold $285-$286 would weaken the recovery. A move below $284 could indicate that traders are continuing to take profits following the Investor Day rally.

Disclaimer

The price levels and market scenarios above reflect the author’s assessment at the time of writing. They do not represent financial advice or an official recommendation from VT Markets. Traders should conduct their own analysis and manage risk carefully.

MRVL Prediction: The Next Big Drivers?

The strongest bullish catalyst would be further evidence that Marvell can deliver on its aggressive AI revenue targets. Continued expansion in custom AI chips, optical connectivity and networking products could reinforce expectations that Marvell will capture a larger share of hyperscaler spending. Technically, a move through $292, followed by a break of $300.76, would suggest buyers are prepared to extend the post-Investor Day rally.

The biggest risk is MRVL’s ability to execute these ambitious results. MRVL’s strong rally means investors are increasingly pricing in rapid AI-related revenue expansion. Any slowdown in capital expenditure, delays to custom-chip programmes or decrease in data centre demand could trigger a downtrend.

Competition and margins both play a crucial role. Marvell operates alongside companies including Broadcom, while Nvidia dominates much of the broader AI market. Marvell’s forecasts also assume that large revenue increases translate into higher earnings. If costs rise faster than expected, or new programmes generate weaker margins, investors may reassess the valuation.

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