Key Points
- Nikkei 225 jumps +0.52% to 43,827.65, rebounding sharply from prior losses.
- Japanese tech stocks track US rally after Oracle’s multicloud revenue spike.
- US jobs revision strengthens case for Fed rate cut—possibly even 50bp.
The Nikkei’s recovery was driven by a combination of global tech momentum and improving domestic sentiment.
Japanese tech firms rallied in tandem with US counterparts after Oracle posted a staggering 1,529% surge in multicloud database revenue. The surge highlights booming demand from Amazon, Google, and Microsoft for AI server capacity.
This enthusiasm lifted SoftBank Group (+7.2%), Advantest (+3.3%), and Disco Corp (+3.2%), contributing heavily to the index’s rise.
In the US, sharp downward revisions to nonfarm payrolls and weaker job data reignited bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut at next week’s meeting, with some traders even eyeing a 50bp move.
Domestically, a private sector survey revealed that Japanese manufacturer sentiment hit a three-year high in September, aided by the easing of trade tensions after a new tariff agreement with Washington.
Technical Overview
The Nikkei 225 is trading at 43,827.65, up +225 points (+0.52%), extending its rebound after briefly consolidating near the 42,700 support.
The index remains in a strong uptrend, holding well above the 39,800 level, which has acted as a solid base since June.
Momentum indicators remain constructive: the moving averages (5,10,30) are stacked bullishly, and the MACD histogram shows early signs of renewed buying pressure.
The immediate resistance lies at 43,950–44,000, a psychological barrier that, if broken, could set the stage for a push toward 45,500.
On the downside, support rests at 42,700, followed by 41,800, keeping the broader uptrend intact as long as these levels hold.
Cautious Forecast
While the current rally is backed by strong fundamentals and technicals, traders should remain alert to upcoming risk events. The Fed’s policy decision next week will be pivotal. Any hawkish surprise or smaller-than-expected cut could dampen sentiment and spark a pullback.
Additionally, global political volatility could inject sudden risk-off pressure. A clean breakout above 43,850 would confirm bullish continuation, but without it, markets may consolidate or retrace.
