Key Points
- UKOUSD stands at $108.618, gaining 0.40% following its previous sharp sell-off.
- Progress towards US–Iran peace negotiations has eased concerns over further Middle East supply disruptions.
- The US midterm elections is the next market catalyst, with traders watching whether Washington’s stance towards Iran changes after the vote.
- Easing supply risks will depend on agreements that improve oil exports and shipping conditions.
- Oil remains under pressure, with $108 support and $109.28–$110 resistance shaping the next move.
Market Move
Brent oil (UKOUSD) traded near $108.62 per barrel early on Tuesday, 3 November, attempting to stabilise after a steep decline from above $118. The modest rebound has recovered only a small portion of the preceding losses.
The technical picture remains fragile. In the latest trading session, the nine-period moving average slopes down towards price, while the latest candles remain near the bottom of the recent decline. Buyers have yet to establish a sustained sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
Why Traders Are Watching
The broader oil sell-off followed signs of diplomatic progress between the US and Iran. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his government had received additional authority to pursue negotiations, while US President Donald Trump indicated an agreement remained possible. Qatar-mediated discussions strengthened expectations that supply risks could ease
Traders are assessing whether negotiations could produce improvements in oil supply and shipping conditions. Diplomatic statements can reduce immediate concerns, but a sustained decline in disruption risks would depend on implementation.
Key Trading Levels
| Level | Role | Significance |
| $114.00–$114.50 | Higher resistance | Earlier consolidation area before selling accelerated. |
| $112.50–$113.00 | Resistance | Previous pause in the decline that could attract sellers on a rebound. |
| $110.00 | Resistance | Round-number level near a recent breakdown area. |
| $109.28 | Initial resistance | Rounded from the displayed high of $109.281. |
| $108.62 | Current reference | Rounded price in the latest chart. |
| $108.00 | Nearby support | Area around which recent candles are attempting to stabilise. |
| $107.30–$107.50 | Lower support | Approximate recent wick-low zone. |
| $106.00 | Downside reference | Potential round-number target if the recent lows give way. |
Holding $108 would support near-term stabilisation, while reclaiming $109.28–$110 would provide stronger evidence that selling pressure is easing.
The lower support zone is the $107.30–$107.50 zone; $106 is a potential downside reference rather than a previously tested floor.
Bullish and Bearish Setups
| Scenario | Trigger | Potential Levels |
| Bullish recovery | Sustained break above $109.28, followed by support holding on a retest. | $110.00, then $112.00 |
| Bullish extension | Recovery above $112.00, with higher lows developing. | $112.50–$113.00, then $114.00–$114.50 |
| Bearish rejection | Failure around $109.28–$110.00, followed by a break below $108.00. | $107.50, then $107.30 |
| Bearish continuation | Sustained break below $107.30 and failure to reclaim the recent low zone. | $107.00, then $106.00 |
A bullish recovery would require UKOUSD to break above $109.28 and hold that level as support on a retest, bringing $110.00, then $112.00 into focus. A sustained recovery above $112.00, supported by higher lows, could extend towards $112.50–$113.00 and $114.00–$114.50.
A bearish rejection around $109.28–$110.00, followed by a break below $108.00, could expose $107.50, then $107.30. If prices fall below $107.30 and fail to reclaim the recent low zone, the decline could continue towards $107.00 and $106.00.
Disclaimer
The price levels and market scenarios above reflect the author’s assessment at the time of writing. They do not represent financial advice or an official recommendation from VT Markets. Traders should conduct their own analysis and manage risk carefully.
UKOUSD Prediction: What Could Drive Oil Prices Up or Down?
Further diplomatic progress could keep UKOUSD under pressure, particularly if agreements translate into more reliable exports and shipping. A reduction in the premium attached to supply risks could limit the strength of recovery attempts.
Prices could rise if negotiations stall, military activity intensifies or fresh disruption threatens oil flows. Such developments could prompt traders to price supply risks back into the market.
The US midterm election is the next major market driver. Brent ended October at a six-month high amid concerns that the conflict could escalate after the vote, leaving the market sensitive to changes in Washington’s position.
Trade UKOUSD with VT Markets
Traders can access UKOUSD through VT Markets and monitor crude oil price movements using the VT Markets App, MetaTrader 4 and MetaTrader 5.
Oil prices can respond quickly to changes in global supply expectations, geopolitical developments, inventory data and shipping disruptions. These factors can influence price momentum and create periods of increased market volatility.
With VT Markets’ charting and market-analysis tools, traders can monitor price momentum, identify key support and resistance levels, and assess potential UKOUSD setups.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is UKOUSD?
UKOUSD is the trading symbol used here for a Brent crude oil CFD quoted in US dollars.
Why has oil been falling?
Hopes of progress in US–Iran peace negotiations have eased concerns about further Middle East supply disruptions, putting pressure on oil prices.
Is UKOUSD showing a confirmed recovery?
No. The modest rebound has yet to reverse the one-hour downtrend or establish a sustained move through nearby resistance.
What are the key support and resistance levels?
Nearby support sits around $108, followed by the approximate $107.30–$107.50 low zone. Initial resistance is $109.28, followed by $110.
Could UKOUSD fall towards $106?
Yes, potentially. A sustained break below the recent low zone could bring $106 into focus, although this remains a conditional target.
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