Live Updates

12

Mar 2026

南非制造业产量同比下滑0.7%，较此前1.4%的跌幅有所改善

南非1月制造业指数年跌0.7%，较前值-1.4%收窄并优于预期，或现触底回暖。交易机会：布局ZAR兑美元看涨期权、ALSI看涨期权，捕捉短线反弹。

12

Mar 2026

AUBANK第（4）浪扩张三角形预示冲动式上攻，持续牛市周期下目标看向1138–1322

AUBANK或完成二浪调整转入三浪升势，扩张三角形料895收尾；目标1138，上限1322。现价1050波动率回落，期权更便宜：看涨或卖put价差；失守1010需警惕。

12

Mar 2026

布热斯基预计欧洲央行3月将按兵不动，但在中东战事推高油价忧虑之际，措辞仍将偏鹰

油价飙升重燃2022式能源冲击阴影！ING料ECB 3月按兵不动但更鹰派，降息预期降温，短端利率期权隐含波动或被低估，重定价在即。

12

Mar 2026

星展银行（DBS）黄瑞保提醒谨慎：美元/日元逼近159–160，市场静待日本央行偏鹰派“按兵不动”决议

美元/日元逼近159–160关键阻力，创数十年高位在望。地缘风险与油价撑美元；日银或放鹰。若会晤缓和局势、油价回落，提防日本干预。

12

Mar 2026

道明证券预计澳洲联储将两度加息，把现金利率恢复至4.35%，支撑澳元

别只盯降息：TD认为RBA 3月与5月各加息25bp，利率回4.35%。GDP与订单强、就业紧与通胀升温，或推高波动并利好澳元。

12

Mar 2026

避险需求再度推升油价与美元，市场聚焦3月12日关键进展

中东战火升级触发全球risk-off：油价暴冲、股指期货转跌。IEA释储4亿桶难压供应忧虑；传中国禁3月成品油出口。周四美国房市、贸易与初请数据成焦点。

12

Mar 2026

大华银行（UOB）策略师预计美元/日元将测试159.45–160.00，在美国国债收益率走高带动下上行，但超买状态限制进一步涨幅

美债收益率走高推美元/日元回升逼近159；但超买或压制涨势。守稳158.55或试159.45，破位看160。警惕日本干预，期权策略宜攻守兼备。

12

Mar 2026

三菱日联金融集团（MUFG）劳埃德·陈称：伊拉克与霍尔木兹风险盖过国际能源署（IEA）释储影响，布伦特油价突破90美元

布油重返90美元上方：伊拉克油港遇袭停摆、霍尔木兹海峡20%海运原油风险升温，压过IEA史上最大释储4亿桶；若封锁，缺口或达千万桶/日。

12

Mar 2026

美元/印度卢比维持稳定，卢比走软抵消误发重刊分析后市场情绪改善

USD/INR横盘：对冲与外资流出压卢比，油价回落缓解风险情绪；市场盯RBI干预与美通胀数据。掉期押注近两次加息，92.81成关键阻力，期权波动走低。

12

Mar 2026

纽约梅隆银行（BNY）策略师Geoff Yu表示，瑞士央行或将出手干预，但鉴于实际有效汇率水平，可容忍瑞郎走强

中东冲突推避险，瑞士央行放话更愿入市干预！瑞郎名义近新高但REER稳定，容忍升值；若无序波动或出手，利于卖短期波动权利金。

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