Live Updates

13

Mar 2026

美国1月JOLTS职位空缺超预期，录得694.6万个，高于预估的670万个

别急着押注降息！美国1月JOLTS职位空缺694.6万高于预期670万，叠加CPI黏性，Fed或更鹰派“高利率更久”，股市需防回调与波动升温。

13

Mar 2026

美国密歇根大学五年期消费者通胀预期降至3.2%，较3月前值3.3%回落

通胀降温信号来了：美国5年通胀预期3月降至3.2%。市场或上调2026年降息押注，利好美债与科技成长，VIX或回落，关注SOFR利率期货与相关衍生品。

13

Mar 2026

3月美国密歇根大学一年期消费者通胀预期持平，维持在3.4%

美国3月1年通胀预期续卡3.4%，高于2%目标，降息或更晚更少；交易员需重估2026定价：偏空SOFR远期、股市防守买NDX保护性看跌，并留意美元走强。

13

Mar 2026

3月，密歇根大学美国消费者预期指数回落至54.1，低于前值56.6

密歇根消费者预期指数3月跌至54.1，悲观升温恐压制可选消费与零售。期权市场或偏防守、对冲波动，降息预期升温——机会来了？

13

Mar 2026

3月，美国密歇根大学消费者信心指数升至55.5，高于预期的55，符合市场预料

密歇根消费者信心3月55.5略胜预期，但仍偏悲观：VIX高企、SPY上行有限。策略可卖价外看涨价差增收，并做多XLP/做空XLY；降息预期升温。

13

Mar 2026

RBC的范克莱尔预计，加拿大劳动力市场在2月就业数据疲弱及失业率上升后，将缓慢复苏

加拿大2月就业再跌8.4万、失业率升至6.7%，参与率创低。人口增速放缓拖累就业，但CUSMA豁免与货币财政支撑，后续或稳住招聘。

13

Mar 2026

澳元/美元跌至约0.7040，美元走强与风险情绪恶化抵消好坏参半的数据影响

AUD/USD回吐高位至0.7040：美元破100、风险偏好降温与油价逼近百元重塑降息预期。澳洲通胀预期升温，期权对冲通胀与波动升温成焦点。

13

Mar 2026

野村预计英伦银行将按兵不动，并警告若油价升至每桶100美元，燃油成本或将推高英国CPI约0.6个百分点

油价若冲上每桶100美元，英国CPI或被推高0.6个百分点。野村料英央行下周按兵不动、降息或延后；交易宜转向“高利率更久”，聚焦SONIA价差。

13

Mar 2026

纽约梅隆银行（BNY）的鲍勃·萨维奇称，能源成本上升正对欧元区及其他经常账户盈余经济体的融资货币构成压力

油价飙升冲击欧元区等顺差经济体：能源进口推高成本，顺差或转逆差，融资货币走强预期受挫。市场增持欧元并加码对冲，避险升温。

13

Mar 2026

美国人口普查局报告称，美国1月耐用品订单总体持平，小幅下滑至3212亿美元

美国1月耐用品订单意外转跌、低于预期，运输拖累但核心仍增；美元走强。市场或重估降息时点，关注SOFR期权、VIX与工业ETF保护性看跌布局。

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