Live Updates

16

Mar 2026

马克龙敦促迅速恢复霍尔木兹海峡航行，并要求伊朗停止对黎巴嫩、伊拉克等地区国家的攻击

霍尔木兹紧张再起：马克龙促恢复航行、警告伊朗核与导弹威胁。市场押注油价与波动率上升，OVX走高；期权策略偏多原油、国防，空海运保险风险。

16

Mar 2026

中东紧张局势升级之际，澳元维持在0.6990附近，交易员关注美以伊战争进展

澳元兑美元升至0.6990，但美以伊冲突第三周令避险美元受捧。油价、通胀与降息预期搅动波动，期权对冲原油、澳美与VIX成关键。

15

Mar 2026

美元/日元低开，官员承诺将密切监测市场；中东冲突升级扩大外汇价差

USD/JPY跳空走低守159.50：日财长警告干预过度波动；美伊冲突升级牵动霍尔木兹。技术面仍偏多，支撑159/158.5，阻力160/160.5，跌破158.5转弱。

15

Mar 2026

美国能源部长克里斯·赖特预计美以与伊朗的冲突将在数周内结束，有望缓解油价压力

美能源部长赖特称美以伊冲突或数周内落幕，原油供应回升、油价与能源成本料下跌。策略：偏空原油衍生品、买Put/空WTI；风险溢价与波动率或急回吐。

15

Mar 2026

新西兰年度电子卡零售销售增至1.5%，较2月前值0.4%上升

新西兰2月电子刷卡零售按年增1.5%猛超前值，消费韧性削弱RBNZ急降息预期；利率与OIS或重估，纽元偏强但波动率料升，交易可偏多NZD。

15

Mar 2026

新西兰电子刷卡零售销售按月上升，2月从前值-1.1%改善至1.4%

新西兰2月电子卡零售反弹1.4%，消费韧性超预期，挑战“快速降温”。通胀仍高于目标，RBNZ料更鹰，降息概率下调；纽元或走强，期权布局值关注。

15

Mar 2026

2月，新西兰BusinessNZ服务业表现指数（PSI）从前值50.9降至48

PSI 2月跌破荣枯线至48，纽西兰服务业转萎缩！增长走弱但通胀仍4.1%，RBNZ陷两难；降息预期升温，纽元与NZX50或承压。

15

Mar 2026

白宫计划公布盟友护航联盟，护送船只安全穿越霍尔木兹海峡航道

特朗普吁盟友组护航联盟确保霍尔木兹海峡安全，点名中法日英韩。若冲突升温，油价与波动率或飙；可用原油、VIX看涨及指数看跌对冲。

15

Mar 2026

韩国与日本考虑特朗普提出的霍尔木兹安全请求，承诺审查后再作决定，并在决定前与美国保持密切磋商

特朗普促盟友护航霍尔木兹海峡，韩日审慎评估、派舰门槛高；战事升级或推升油价与OVX隐含波动率。交易者可做多波动，关注航运期权、偏空航空股。

15

Mar 2026

以色列军方通过X通报，已对伊朗西部发动大规模波次空袭

以军广泛空袭伊朗西部、导弹互射升温，霍尔木兹风险推油价破98美元、美元走强，VIX飙升；交易员或转向避险：买VIX/指数看跌、原油与能源ETF看涨、回避航空消费股。

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