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Live Updates

18

Mar 2026

欧元/日元徘徊在183.50附近，变动不大，交易员在欧洲央行与日本央行决议前保持谨慎

欧/日守在183.50，静待ECB与BoJ决议。欧区通胀回升、加息预期升温；日本或最早4月再升息。波动率走高，长跨式或捕捉突破。

18

Mar 2026

余氏指出，中东冲突下新兴市场套利交易仍具韧性；目前仅印度卢比和罗马尼亚列伊仍处于低配状态

中东冲突未撼动EM外汇套息韧性：高实际利率与央行信誉支撑，美元利率走高添防线。INR、RON持仓不足，IDR或跟进；TRY高息仍遭抛售，能源补贴恐逼紧缩。

18

Mar 2026

道明证券预计英国就业将走弱，失业率将升至5.3%，薪资增速将降温，支撑英伦银行偏向宽松的立场

英国就业降温警报？TD Securities 料失业率升至5.3%、就业转负，支持英央行更鸽派；但实际失业仍4.5%、工资粘性，降息或推迟，SONIA与FTSE期权成焦点。

18

Mar 2026

美国劳工统计局（BLS）报告：2月美国生产者价格同比上涨3.4%，超出预期并高于1月的2.9%增幅

美国2月PPI与核心PPI双双爆表，通胀更顽固推高美元；市场恐慌升温、降息预期或重定价。交易者可提前布局波动率与股债对冲策略。

18

Mar 2026

荷兰银行（ABN AMRO）Quaedvlieg称：若因霍尔木兹海峡关闭引发能源冲击，将推高美国通胀、拖累增长，令美联储按兵不动且偏鸽立场合理

霍尔木兹海峡若封锁，油价飙升将引爆“成本推动”冲击：美国通胀上行、增长受压。市场已先行收紧，料美联储更可能长期按兵不动、紧盯通胀预期是否脱锚。

18

Mar 2026

2月美国核心生产者价格指数按月上涨0.5%，高于预期的0.3%

美国2月核心PPI按月飙0.5%超预期，通胀更顽固！6月降息概率跌破25%，美债2年收益率或再测4.85%，股市避险与VIX料升温。

18

Mar 2026

2月美国生产者价格指数（PPI）同比上涨3.4%，高于预期的2.9%

美国2月PPI按年飙至3.4%超预期0.5个百分点，通胀更“粘”。市场下调降息押注，关注做空SOFR期货、标普500买Put对冲，并顺势布局强美元DXY。

18

Mar 2026

2月美国生产者物价指数（PPI）按月上涨0.7%，高于经济学家预测的0.3%

美国2月PPI环比暴涨0.7%远超预期，通胀再敲警钟。降息预期急降、利率或更久偏高，VIX回升；美元走强，股债波动与对冲需求升温。

18

Mar 2026

日元逼近1美元兑160日元，日本当局加大警告力度，指投机活动作祟且生活成本上升

日元逼近160引爆干预恐慌！日本官员指投机压低汇价、推高民生成本；若口头警告无效，财务省或再出手。159焦灼，158.80成多空生死线。

18

Mar 2026

法国兴业银行表示，美联储释放限制性信号及SEP偏鹰派调整，或推动美元兑G10与新兴市场货币走强

想捉美元下一波？法兴料美联储立场略偏紧、SEP与点阵图或更鹰，甚至删2026降息；油价冲击推升通胀风险，美元与短端收益率或走强、曲线熊趋平。

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