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Live Updates

25

Mar 2026

尽管美伊会谈前景仍存不确定性，外汇市场乐观情绪不减，交易员整体维持偏多氛围

传“或停火一个月”与重开霍尔木兹海峡，欧股早盘走强。美元指数99.40盘整、油价偏弱；英通胀略高推英镑承压，金价飙破4500。

25

Mar 2026

道明证券预计美元将上涨，因风险溢价维持高位，尽管其对2026年前景看淡

TD Securities警告：风险溢价高企与避险买盘或续挺美元；若战事降温、美国增长例外论退潮及“对冲美国”升温，美元或转弱，短线波动上行。

25

Mar 2026

英国国家统计局（ONS）：英国2月年度CPI通胀率维持在3.0%，符合预期并与1月持平

英国2月CPI同比3%持平、核心升至3.2%超预期，通胀仍黏。英镑/美元回落至1.3390；英银利率维持3.75%，市场仍计入年内加息约67基点。

25

Mar 2026

英国2月月度未季调产出PPI下降0.5%，低于预期的0.2%上升

英国2月PPI产出环比意外跌0.5%（预期+0.2%），通胀降温更快；英银5月降息机率升、英镑与GBP/USD承压，国债/SONIA期货受惠，股市或迎利好。

25

Mar 2026

英国核心生产者出厂价格环比下跌0.8%（未经季节性调整），此前为上涨0.2%

英国2月核心PPI环比暴跌至-0.8%，通缩信号强烈！降息预期升温，英镑或走弱、英债收益率下行，股市受益但短线波动与跨资产重估风险上升。

25

Mar 2026

2月份，英国年度未季调出厂价格指数（PPI）上涨1.7%，低于2.6%的预期

英国2月出厂价年增仅1.7%逊预期，通胀降温快于想象！英央行更早降息概率升，英镑或走弱、富时100受益，SONIA与英债料再定价。

25

Mar 2026

英国2月核心CPI同比升至3.2%，高于市场预测的3.1%

英国2月核心CPI意外升至3.2%胜预期，降息或延后，“高利率更久”升温：两年期英债收益率飙15基点，英镑走强，股市承压，衍生品布局机会浮现。

25

Mar 2026

2月英国月度消费者价格指数（CPI）上涨0.4%，符合经济学家预期

英国2月CPI月升0.4%符合预期，冲击有限；通胀仍高支撑英央行偏鹰、波动率或偏低。关注服务业通胀风险及“高利率更久”，英镑区间利差受益。

25

Mar 2026

英国2月零售物价指数按月上涨0.4%，低于预期的0.5%

英国2月RPI环比仅0.4%低预期，通胀降温信号增强；叠加GDP疲弱、短端收益率调整，市场或上调第三季前降息押注，英镑恐承压。

25

Mar 2026

INGING经济学家指出，NBH将利率维持在6.25%，中东战争后政策转趋鹰派，抑制市场对降息的预期

匈牙利央行利率维持6.25%，中东战事推升油价令立场转鹰。通胀低位提供缓冲，但福林承压、降息概率下滑；投资者紧盯能源与霍尔木兹航运。

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