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30

Mar 2026

受入侵担忧影响，英镑兑美元走软，交投于1.3240附近，创两周新低

英镑兑美元跌至1.3240近两周新低！美伊地缘风险推升避险，美元连涨、标普期货回落；油价高企压英镑。关注本周NFP/ISM，期权对冲下行与波动。

30

Mar 2026

维勒鲁瓦表示，若能源推动的通胀更广泛扩散至各类价格，欧洲央行官员已准备好应对

能源冲击再来？法央行行长警告通胀“第二轮效应”若扩散，ECB随时出手；通胀仍黏在2.9%、利率4.25%僵持。交易员宜备期权押波动、降息或更慢。

30

Mar 2026

亚洲早盘交易中，欧元/美元接近1.1490，下跌0.15%；伊朗警告美军发动地面攻击之际，连续第五日下挫

中东紧张升温拖累欧元：EUR/USD连跌、美元走强，风险资产降温。德HICP与油价或改写ECB预期。隐波仍低，趁便宜期权布局避险对冲。

30

Mar 2026

中东战争进入第五周，日元兑美元进一步走弱

日元失守！美元/日元冲上160.50创阶段新高，中东冲突与红海航运风险推升美元避险需求；但日本或干预、日银加息预期成上行紧箍咒。

29

Mar 2026

在伊朗警告美国展开地面行动之际，澳元兑美元周初走低，徘徊于0.6850附近

伊朗警告美军地面行动，全球避险升温：澳元走弱、美元走强，股指期货下挫；期权波动飙升、油价逼近98美元。本周关注美就业与通胀，左右联储预期。

29

Mar 2026

周四的停火消息反弹接近底部但迅速消退；标普500指数在欧洲开盘前反转，仅争取到有限时间

停火口头利好难撑市：标普反弹秒熄、科技转弱，资金轮动黄金与大盘。局势升温推油破95、VIX飙22。策略：买SPY保护性认沽，谨慎科技，适度布局能源。

28

Mar 2026

星展银行经济学家蔡汉登表示，中东冲突冲击加剧泰国泰铢与股市压力，令泰国央行立场面临挑战

中东冲突推升大宗商品，泰国最先“中枪”：泰铢月跌5.3%垫底、股市跌5.8%。通胀风险掣肘BoT降息，甚至计入Q3加息；可做多波动、用指数期货对冲。

28

Mar 2026

大华银行研究团队称，在通胀升温及中东风险上升之际，菲律宾央行在非例行会议上将隔夜逆回购利率维持在4.25%

中东风险升温下，菲律宾央行突开会议仍把政策利率守在4.25%。UOB料短期按兵不动，但警惕通胀二轮效应、流动性放松拖累比索，期权对冲成关键。

28

Mar 2026

白银在连续两日下跌后小幅走高，但中东紧张局势推升美元需求，银价仍低于70美元

银价两连跌后强弹2.7%逼近70美元，中东避险退潮后买盘回流。关键看能否突破73.66美元；失守66.73恐下探61。通胀黏性与工业PMI支撑。

28

Mar 2026

德国商业银行经济学家称，2026年初中国工业利润在能源冲击前因AI电子产品带动而上升

AI电子带动中国工业利润年初反弹10.2%，但油价飙升挤压下游、终结PPI通缩，形成双速经济。央行难容人民币走强，衍生品偏向押注CNH偏弱、做多能源对冲制造。

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