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Live Updates

10

Apr 2026

美国第四季度核心个人消费支出（PCE）环比上升2.7%，与分析师预期完全一致

核心PCE按季2.7%符合预期，意外消失或压低隐含波动率；但仍高于2%目标、就业强劲，降息更难更慢。交易员转向“卖涨/价差”应对高利率久拖。

10

Apr 2026

美国第四季度个人消费支出（PCE）价格环比上升2.9%，符合市场预期，没有偏离

美国PCE季增2.9%符合预期，市场已消化，隐含波动或回落。通胀仍高于2%目标，就业稳挺，美联储料不急降息；可布局“高利率更久”，用SOFR期权对冲。

10

Apr 2026

美国2月个人消费支出增长0.5%，符合预期，显示消费者支出保持稳健水平

美国2月PCE增0.5%符合预期、3月CPI降至2.9%，美联储5月动利率概率低于15%。VIX

10

Apr 2026

美国第四季度GDP物价指数低于预期，报3.7%，不及预测的3.8%

美国Q4 GDP价格指数仅3.7%低于预期3.8%，通胀降温再获验证；押注美联储年内或降息两次：利好科技成长股、SOFR期货，美元指数料偏弱。

10

Apr 2026

3月，美国持续申领失业救济人数为179.4万人，低于预估的184万人

美国续领失业金降至179.4万人、低预期4.6万，就业紧俏令Fed更不急降息；2年美债息回升、美元走强。策略：做空利率预期、买纳指保护。

10

Apr 2026

美国第四季度GDP年化增长0.5%，低于0.7%的预测与整体预期

美国Q4 GDP年化仅增0.5%低预期，增长降温引爆降息押注：美债走强收益率下行、美元承压；VIX或上扬，科技股估值博弈加剧，期权对冲成关键。

10

Apr 2026

2月美国个人收入按月下滑0.1%，低于市场预期的0.3%增长

爆冷！美国2月个人收入环比跌0.1%（预期+0.3%），叠加零售疲弱与核心CPI放缓，市场押注7月降息升温；关注SPX期权对冲、VIX看涨及做多10年期国债ZN。

10

Apr 2026

2月美国核心PCE物价指数环比上升0.4%，符合预期

美国2月核心PCE环比升0.4%符预期，通胀仍顽固。就业强劲压降息预期，美联储或高利率更久。科技房产承压，VIX升近18，美元看涨需求续旺。

10

Apr 2026

美国2月PCE物价指数按月升0.4%符合预期，反映通胀动能保持稳健

PCE 2月环比升0.4%符合预期，但通胀仍顽固、就业强劲削弱降息理由。6月降息概率跌破50%，利率或更高更久；VIX回升，CPI/FOMC前期权策略更吸睛。

10

Apr 2026

Savage表示，若燃油带动的压力下核心通胀上升，新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）行长Breman可能加息

RBNZ放“鹰”话：核心通胀回升就果断加息，油价与中东风险推高压力。纽元、2年债收益率与期权波动策略成焦点，5月议息或引爆行情。

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