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10

Apr 2026

停火乐观情绪削弱美元，尽管美国通胀数据坚挺，欧元兑美元仍连续第五个交易日上涨

欧元连涨五日逼近1.1736，美元指数创最大周跌；美伊停火提振风险偏好。通胀升但核心偏软，Fed观望降息预期升温；期权布局中期EUR/USD看涨。

10

Apr 2026

尽管核心CPI数据走软，TD Securities团队认为美联储将继续保持耐心，仍预计降息两次

3月核心CPI意外降温，关税传导放慢，“超级核心”创四个月低点。TD Securities料核心PCE回落，但警惕4月反弹；仍预测美联储2026下半年两次降息。

10

Apr 2026

韩国央行维持利率在2.5%，关注7月加息；通胀回升、增长预测趋软，数据导向策略

韩国央行利率按兵不动仍偏鹰，强调数据导向：通胀料高于2.2%、GDP预测下调，韩元走弱添风险；市场押注最早7月加息，滞胀阴影浮现。

10

Apr 2026

4月，美国密歇根消费者信心指数跌至47.6，低于预期的52

密大消费者信心4月仅47.6、远逊预期52，警报拉响：消费转弱+失业攀升，股市或更震荡。策略：加码SPY/QQQ认沽、VIX认购，做多美债，空美元与油铜。

10

Apr 2026

密歇根大学：美国五年期消费者通胀预期从3.2%升至3.4%

美国5年通胀预期4月升至3.4%敲警钟：降通胀不顺，降息两次或过度乐观。利率与美股估值承压，SOFR、纳指期权、VIX与TIPS对冲或受关注。

10

Apr 2026

美国工厂订单2月按月持平，优于市场预期的0.2%下滑

意外稳住！美国2月工厂订单环比0%，优于预期0.2个百分点，制造业韧性延续。惟通胀顽固、降息难快，低VIX下卖XLI认沽收权利金更吸引。

10

Apr 2026

瑞银经济学家保罗·多诺万解析：加油站油价如何影响主要经济体消费者行为变化

油价逼近美国“每加仑4美元”关口再掀危机叙事，但英美欧车用燃料需求结构性转弱：省油车与电动车普及压抑消费，反弹上限或更低。交易员可逢高布局空单与Put，对冲政策干预风险。

10

Apr 2026

哈塞特称，霍尔木兹海峡重开后能源价格将迅速回落，降息空间看起来充足

哈塞特称能源通胀缓解令美联储降息更有空间，并估霍尔木兹两个月重开促油价回落；但2025曾延至四个月，油价与OVX飙升，时点误判套牢交易员。

10

Apr 2026

加拿大皇家银行（RBC）经济学家内森·詹森表示，加拿大劳动力市场3月趋稳，就业增加，失业率为6.7%

加拿大3月就业回升1.4万人、失业率6.7%企稳但劳动力收缩。通胀2.8%挤压央行空间，市场偏低波动：区间做USD/CAD，TSX用备兑/价差赚权利金。

10

Apr 2026

丰业银行策略师称欧元/美元在1.17附近盘整，上行风险仍在，受情绪、收益率与期权因素支撑

欧元兑美元横摆1.17，短线技术偏多但美德利差近200基点、Fed偏鹰压制欧元；期权风险逆转转向看跌，交易员或用看跌期权/熊市价差押注跌破1.08。

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