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Live Updates

13

Apr 2026

2月，俄罗斯对外贸易额从此前的65.97亿美元降至53.53亿美元，反映贸易往来走弱

俄罗斯2月外贸顺差骤降至53.53亿美元，出口疲弱叠加进口成本与原油贴水扩大，卢布承压。历史暗示或贬破100关口，USD/RUB看涨策略更占优。

13

Apr 2026

BNY的Bob Savage表示，日本央行行长植田和男敦促警惕油价上涨与全球金融不稳定风险

中东冲突推升油价破110美元，植田警告冲击供应链与基础通胀，日银4月底或转鹰；东京核心CPI 2.8%+货币增速回升，日元转强风险升，可用期权布局。

13

Apr 2026

法国兴业银行预计英格兰银行将继续按兵不动，因英国数据走软及成本上升削弱信心

英国楼市与消费转弱，RICS指按揭高企压抑需求。央行官员静默期前密集发言，市场押注年内降息超50bp；若转鹰派，SONIA与英镑或剧烈重定价。

13

Apr 2026

布朗兄弟哈里曼（BBH）埃利亚斯·哈达德表示，澳洲就业数据将左右澳洲联储（RBA）在3月以5比4表决加息后的政策走向

RBA以5比4险胜加息至4.10%，分歧凸显劳动力“过热”疑虑。周四3月就业数据成关键：若强劲，5月再加息概率62%或升；澳元逼近0.7200阻力。

13

Apr 2026

美伊会谈破裂后，油价飙升：布伦特涨9%，WTI突破105美元，潜在美国封锁港口威胁笼罩

美伊谈判破局，美军拟封锁伊朗港口航运引爆供应忧虑：布伦特盘中飙逾9%、WTI重返105美元，欧气价亦急升；关注OPEC报告，波动率与布油强势交易机会浮现。

13

Apr 2026

德意志银行称美联储维持利率不变，预计9月降息；霍尔木兹海峡封锁风险推升布伦特油价或达120美元，市场保持谨慎

德银：美联储3月按兵不动，仍料9月降息25bp；但市场仅计入6bp、降息概率约24%。更大变量是霍尔木兹封锁：油价或飙至120美元，推升通胀，甚至逼迫再加息。

13

Apr 2026

欧元/美元收复早盘跌幅，但在地缘政治紧张局势支撑避险情绪下仍徘徊于1.1700附近

美伊破局与南海摩擦升温，避险资金涌向美元，EUR/USD 反弹受阻 1.1750、走势偏弱但守 1.1671。VIX 升、通胀黏，宜布局看跌期权或熊差。

13

Apr 2026

接近1.3840，美元/加元基本持平，油价走高与市场对美联储鹰派预期抵消了早前涨幅

美元/加元徘徊1.3840陷入拉锯！WTI油价飙近7%撑加元；美伊谈判破裂打压风险偏好、推高美债收益率挺美元，双重力量抵消，汇价横盘。

13

Apr 2026

欧元/美元自1.1740回落后，在亚洲时段低点1.1670反弹，现于1.1700附近企稳

欧元/美元回落仍撑在1.1670，油价破100美元推升美元。隐波EVZ仅6.8，市场过度淡定。关注拉加德与央行变数，宜买入平值跨式搏大波动。

13

Apr 2026

银价徘徊在74美元上方、几乎持平；此前一度下探至72.61美元低点，随着看涨动能减弱

银价跌后守74美元，避险推升美元且贵金属疲弱；短线盯美国PPI与73.50支撑。2025后地缘降温、美元转弱，太阳能需求+15%托底，银强于金。

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