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9

Jul 2026

墨西哥6月核心通胀低于预期，强化市场对墨西哥央行降息押注并拖累比索

墨西哥6月核心通胀环比0.24%不及预期，潜在压力缓和；降息预期升温压缩利差，或推USD/MXN上探18.75。利率互换宜收固定，并配置美元/比索看涨期权捕捉波动回升。

9

Jul 2026

中东紧张局势冲击中东欧市场，波兰央行维持中性立场，匈牙利福林领跌引发抛售

中东紧张推升风险溢价，CEE利率与外汇遭抛售。NBP维持中性、波兰降息预期回撤；福林因净多头与央行鸽派暴跌，EUR/HUF急升，或现战术期权机会。

9

Jul 2026

新西兰元兑美元在新西兰联储加息后走强，但中国数据及避险资金流入美元限制上行空间

纽元兑美元升至0.5730受RBNZ加息与紧缩指引提振；但中国通胀走弱及中东地缘风险推升美元避险，汇价上行动能受限，看跌期权布局价值凸显。

9

Jul 2026

英镑升至三周高位并突破1.3400关口，美联储会议纪要令美元承压

英镑受美元走软与英美货币政策分化推动，GBP/USD上破1.3400创三周新高。CFTC净多增15%助涨；惟美伊局势与美国通胀数据或致回撤，宜期权控风险。

9

Jul 2026

南非5月制造业萎缩加剧，兰特及约翰内斯堡证券交易所股票面临风险上升

南非5月制造业产出同比降4.3%收缩加深，叠加CPI 5.8%与失业33.1%呈滞胀：兰特或再承压，JSE逆风，建议做空ZAR并买入ALSI看跌/做多波动。

9

Jul 2026

受德国贸易顺差提振，欧元/加元反弹；油价走软及霍尔木兹紧张局势施压加元

EUR/CAD连跌后反弹至1.6210，德国贸易顺差超预期提振欧元；油价回落与霍尔木兹冲突扰动加元。关注欧数与能源分化，期权对冲波动。

9

Jul 2026

能源冲击引发投资者重新定价鹰派欧洲央行预期德国国债与法国国债收益率跳升欧元小幅走高

能源冲击推升通胀预期，市场鹰派重定价ECB：年内或再加息三次；欧债遭抛售、德法长端收益率跃升。欧元获支撑，股市估值承压宜期权对冲。

9

Jul 2026

油价与海湾紧张局势推升美国利率预期，支撑美元保持坚挺并引发新兴市场套利交易回撤

油价攀升与海湾局势恶化推升美债利率波动，通胀黏性强化美联储鹰派预期；美元兑低息货币偏强，套利交易平仓，新兴市场承压；DXY101附近仍具上行空间。

9

Jul 2026

星展银行预计，受中东风险推动油价与美债收益率走强影响，美元将在2026年下半年上涨2%至3%

中东局势推升油价与美债收益率，OCBC预期2026年下半年美元对低息货币升值2%–3%；若油价破100美元或美国过热，涨超5%成尾部风险。

9

Jul 2026

日元走强，伊朗紧张局势打压美元；市场关注美联储风险与日本央行收紧政策动向

地缘风险升温叠加美元承压，USD/JPY回落至162.35、DXY走低；通胀预期脱锚忧虑抬头。利差支撑美元偏强，期权策略偏多并辅以虚值看跌对冲。

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