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25

Jul 2026

贝森特就诺克斯堡黄金储备作出保证，金市震荡之际再掀独立审计呼声

口头背书难掩诺克斯堡黄金逾50年缺乏实质外部审计；在美债超39万亿美元、金价高位背景下，透明度缺失或推升避险溢价，利多黄金及衍生品对冲配置。

25

Jul 2026

金银比率达70凸显白银低估，提振均值回归交易兴趣

金银比价回归信号再现：长期协整均衡约59.65，现扩至70:1指向白银相对低估；叠加供需缺口与工业需求，建议衍生品做多白银、套利做空黄金。

25

Jul 2026

泰铢徘徊于15个月低位附近，油价波动与美国国债收益率走高提振美元

泰铢逼近15个月低位：油价反弹、美元走强与美债收益率上行共振，叠加泰国央行偏宽松及利差劣势，资金外流加剧；建议布局USD/THB多头并以原油期权对冲。

25

Jul 2026

欧元区PMI上升推动欧元/美元上行至1.1370，美联储决议前美元维持坚挺

欧元区PMI超预期难敌美元韧性，欧元/美元回落1.1370；美国服务业强势或推升美债收益率。临近美联储议息，跌破1.1366恐加速下行，建议布局短期限看跌期权。

25

Jul 2026

美元走强下黄金小幅走高，受美国国债收益率下行支撑，静待美联储会议召开前的价格表现

美元走强下金价仍反弹至4,065美元；美债收益率回落与地缘风险抬升隐波。聚焦7/29议息与加息定价，关注4,100阻力、4,000支撑及期权对冲策略。

24

Jul 2026

印尼央行维持利率在5.75%，大华银行提示或进一步加息并支撑印尼盾

印尼央行7月维持5.75%并释放“鹰派按兵不动”，美元/印尼盾温和上行。UOB预计至2026年底再加息75bp至6.50%，建议布局USD/IDR看跌及利率互换曲线趋平交易。

24

Jul 2026

股市徘徊于52,000点附近，伊朗谈判传闻引发油价回落，美国关税重塑市场前景

指数守52,000但反弹脆弱：原油因美伊重启传闻回落；美国301关税覆盖99%进口或推升粘性通胀。美债偏鹰，9月前加息概率飙升，警惕FOMC后波动与下行风险。

24

Jul 2026

三菱日联金融集团预计新加坡金融管理局将于7月维持政策不变并偏向鹰派，支持新元走强

MUFG料MAS7月维持政策不变并延续偏紧指引，区分能源与内生通胀以强化沟通；信号利多新元，建议通过做空USD/SGD及买入看跌期权把握下行。

24

Jul 2026

德国商业银行认为，随着“美股七巨头”光环褪去及超大规模云服务商信贷压力加剧，人工智能交易正在转向

德商银行警示：Mag7热度退潮，超大规模云厂商资本开支挤压自由现金流并推升杠杆，CDS利差异常抬升；半导体剧烈波动加大，宜用防御期权与波动率策略应对。

24

Jul 2026

美元涨势消退：美债收益率回落、油价走软，市场严阵以待FOMC风险

美元涨势趋缓：油价回落、美债收益率下行致压力减轻，高贝塔货币相对占优。FOMC与中东风险仍支撑美元，建议区间策略与卖跨捕捉波动回落。

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