Live Updates

28

Jul 2026

在美联储加息概率上升及油价下跌削弱通胀对冲吸引力影响下，黄金跌至4,047美元

金价回落至4,047美元，受美联储加息预期与油价走弱双重压制；33%加息不确定性推升期权隐波，建议ATM跨式博弈决议波动，失守4,036或指向3,940。

28

Jul 2026

星展银行认为，美联储降息预期与油价下跌拖累美元，美元指数下行风险成为关注焦点

星展研究称美元受政策预期与油价下行分化牵引；期货定价下次FOMC意外加息概率38%。若按兵不动并淡化前瞻指引，DXY或走弱，宜布局虚值看跌期权。

28

Jul 2026

美联储料将释放鹰派信号，沃什警示通胀风险：伊朗引发油价冲击叠加不确定性

美联储周三或释偏鹰信号、强调高度不确定性与数据依赖，点阵图缺席。期货已计入9月加息，美元或“买预期卖事实”。建议短期限美元看跌期权对冲，并配原油看涨期权防伊朗冲突升级，关注SOFR跨式捕捉波动。

28

Jul 2026

美元/加元随油价下跌走低，市场静待美联储决议并关注美伊谈判进展

油价回落压制加元，中东会谈与加元阶段性走强令USD/CAD回落至1.4113。焦点转向美联储决议，按兵不动概率62%；关注1.4157突破与1.3962-1.4001支撑。

28

Jul 2026

中东风险缓和致油价下挫；科技股财报与美联储决议推升美元、打压金价

中东缓和致油价跳空低开、投机平仓叠加需求走弱，建议WTI反弹75美元逢高沽空；美联储偏鹰支撑美元，黄金与美股财报周波动加剧。

28

Jul 2026

E-mini纳斯达克9月合约自28,800回落，关注28,000支撑，警惕跌破27,700风险

E-mini纳指期货冲高受阻28,800/28,900急挫，回落至28,000/27,850支撑。上破阻力看28,480；跌破27,700转空，目标27,500及27,150，警惕夏末回撤。

28

Jul 2026

随着第二季度财报发布临近，Visa与万事达卡备受关注，期权策略成为市场焦点

财报季聚焦Visa与万事达：Visa一致预期上修，EPS/营收料增11.8%/8.4%，宜牛市价差对冲IV回落；万事达预期下调但营收增15%，可宽跨式博弈波动重定价。

28

Jul 2026

瑞郎回落，美元/瑞郎在关税逆风与美联储不确定性下延续七连涨

瑞郎避险溢价回落推升美元/瑞郎七连阳至0.8190；SNB料利率长期维持0%，美联储加息预期升温，利差交易与期权布局成焦点。

28

Jul 2026

印尼盾因央行行长辞职走弱，美元兑印尼盾在美联储决议前延续涨势

USD/IDR连涨至18130：印尼央行行长辞职冲击独立性预期，叠加美联储加息定价偏鹰与油价回落，建议配置美元及看涨期权并强化新兴市场对冲。

28

Jul 2026

在路透报道后油价回落之际，阿曼提议制定霍尔木兹海峡联合管理方案

路透：阿曼提议与伊朗共建霍尔木兹海峡联合治理机制，借鉴马六甲模式设自愿性通行基金，保障航行支持、环保及搜救；消息后WTI跌1.1%。

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