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Live Updates

6

Aug 2026

巴西央行将Selic基准利率下调至14%，通胀与选举风险加剧令宽松前景趋紧

巴西央行如期降息25基点至14%，但淡化前瞻指引、数据依赖更强。通胀与财政约束压缩后续空间，关注2026年DI与利率互换付息，并用USD/BRL期权对冲选举波动。

6

Aug 2026

欧元区零售销售不及预期，引发对消费者需求及欧元前景的再度担忧

欧元区6月零售销售环比降0.3%超预期、同比仅增0.7%，消费动能显著走弱；欧元反应平淡但上行受限，市场或提前计价降息，外汇与利率衍生品对冲需求升温。

6

Aug 2026

欧元维持在182.25日元附近，干预风险与欧元区销售数据主导欧元兑日元（EUR/JPY）波动

EUR/JPY于182.25附近企稳续涨，但美日潜在联合干预抬升不确定性。关注欧元区零售数据与利差变化，建议以长跨式/宽跨式及虚值日元看涨期权对冲高波动风险。

6

Aug 2026

金价上涨：美元走软及市场下调美联储加息预期推动金价回升至4205关键支撑位上方

金价受美元走软与政策预期再定价驱动上破4205，技术指向4550，回撤关注4205/3960。非农与加就业或引爆汇市波动；油价受霍尔木兹不确定性牵制。

6

Aug 2026

意大利6月工业产出下降0.6%，加剧市场对欧洲央行鸽派立场的押注并推动利差走阔交易

意大利6月工业产出同比降0.6%远逊预期，制造业持续收缩。疲弱或推动欧央行立场转鸽，BTP-Bund利差走阔风险上升，欧股与欧元面临下行压力。

6

Aug 2026

英镑/美元小幅走高，英镑进入盘整阶段；期权显示1.3555下方或维持区间震荡运行

英镑/美元温和上行但动能偏弱，短线或在1.3445–1.3495高位区间震荡；上行受制1.3555。支撑上调至1.3410，建议期权区间策略与逢低布局。

6

Aug 2026

布伦特原油徘徊于80美元下方，美国与伊朗达成协议预期抵消馏分油和柴油市场供应趋紧影响

布伦特原油徘徊80美元下方，美伊阿曼谈判或促霍尔木兹航运恢复，潜在回调风险上升；但成品油库存下滑、馏分油出口创新高，裂解价差做多机会凸显。

6

Aug 2026

随着干预影响减弱且非农就业数据临近，美元/日元反弹延续至157.80

USD/JPY反弹至157.80，获利回吐削弱日元干预升势；市场紧盯非农与日本后续政策。技术承压160.55，155.23/154.00为下看目标，期权布局看跌与波动率。

6

Aug 2026

卢比小幅走弱；受油企购汇及印度央行维持利率不变影响，美元/印度卢比逼近关键阻力位，静待美国就业数据公布

印度卢比随油价与地缘扰动小幅走弱，USD/INR反弹至95.22。RBI按兵不动、外储护盘；聚焦非农。技术偏空，95.60阻力下宜卖Call，跌破94.83看94.15。

6

Aug 2026

黄金涨幅收窄至4,300美元下方，美元需求走强；市场焦点转向美国非农就业数据

金价冲高回落，美元小幅反弹压制4,300美元关口；ADP疲弱令9月加息隐含概率降至55%，市场押注NFP引爆波动；技术站上50日均线，期权宜谨慎布局看涨价差。

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