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28

May 2026

道明证券提前预测新西兰联储7月加息，仍预计共四次各25个基点的加息

TD Securities 把RBNZ首加息从9月提前至7月：通胀4.2%与就业强劲，市场定价85%概率。仍看4次加息，2-10年利差趋窄；5年掉期近3.5%可收固定。

28

May 2026

美元指数守在4月高位附近，市场静待美国GDP与PCE通胀数据

美元指数连涨触及99.54，宏观与技术面偏多，市场紧盯GDP与PCE。守住98.81支撑或再挑战99.50/100，跌破则多头降温，宜期权对冲。

28

May 2026

欧元区5月消费者信心持平于-19，强化市场对欧洲央行按兵不动及低波动的看法

欧元区5月消费者信心持平预期报-19，家庭情绪仍疲弱、消费更谨慎。VSTOXX回落至14.5。核心通胀降至2.1%，ECB大概率按兵不动，意外鹰派有限。

28

May 2026

欧元区工业信心维持在-8，波动性保持低位并继续对欧元构成压力

欧元区5月工业信心指数符合预期报负8，情绪续疲弱、低于长期均值。市场反应或平淡，隐含波动料走低；欧股上行有限，卖出虚值看涨价差可关注。

28

May 2026

美元/日元逼近160，收益率利差扩大，日本干预风险再度成为焦点

美元/日元缓步逼近160，关键推手是美日收益率利差扩至约425bp而非油价。支撑158.70、阻力160.70；临近干预区，期权对冲变便宜，反转风险升温。

28

May 2026

欧元在1.1600上方企稳，伊朗紧张局势推升油价并支撑美元需求

中东紧张推油价破94美元、风险偏好降温，欧元反弹仍偏弱。市场押注ECB 6月加息支撑，关注美PCE等数据；EUR/USD 1.1575–1.1660区间，适合卖波动率策略。

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