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28

May 2026

美国4月个人支出增长0.5%，强化美联储维持利率不变预期，市场维持区间震荡

美国4月个人支出环比增0.5%符预期：消费韧性仍在但不过热。美联储夏季或按兵不动，VIX偏低、利率区间震荡，期权收息策略可关注。

28

May 2026

美国核心PCE降至3.6%，美联储降息概率下滑，波动风险升温

美国4月PCE通胀按年3.8%符合预期，核心PCE回落但顽固；美联储偏谨慎、9月降息概率降。VIX偏低或提供跨式机会，SOFR期货押利率续高。

28

May 2026

美国首季GDP增长放缓至1.6%，强化降息押注并推升跨市场对冲需求

美国首季GDP仅增1.6%逊预期，经济降温或促美联储转向；期货押注9月降息逾65%。股市波动料升、美元或走弱，宜债券与波动率对冲。

28

May 2026

美国PCE通胀在第一季度持稳于4.5%，市场权衡美联储6月加息动向

美国首季PCE通胀季增4.5%符合预期，但降温不易。市场紧盯就业、CPI与6月FOMC，升息25bp概率约65%。VIX近19，期权与SOFR工具捕捉波动。

28

May 2026

法国巴黎银行认为，美国生产力（而非人工智能）将推动增长，并支撑美元走强

法国巴黎银行点名：美国增长领跑靠生产力，而非短期AI。劳动生产力回升支撑扩张延续至2026-27；BLS数据佐证。Fed或持续按兵不动，利率波动低成交易机会。

28

May 2026

欧元走软，伊朗紧张局势推高油价；美国PCE与欧洲央行（ECB）展望料引发突破走势

欧元兑美元连跌三日仍困1.1600区间；美伊冲突推油价破94压欧元。市场押ECB 6月加息91%，但美PCE或触发破位。策略：买波动、做跨式。

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