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28

May 2026

MUFG认为，中东风险与油价走高将通过美联储转向鹰派推高美元

中东冲突与油价飙升重燃通胀忧虑，MUFG看美元续强：联储更鹰、降息更难，美债收益率与利差扩大。策略偏多美元，关注期权对冲与波动回升机会。

28

May 2026

英镑企稳：英国政治风险溢价消退，欧元兑英镑上行空间取决于央行动向

英镑趋稳：EUR/GBP政治风险溢价已由约1%回吐至零，隐波降至4.5%低位。伯纳姆守财政框架降忧。料0.870上方难久，警惕9月政治与央行转向风险。

28

May 2026

美国4月新屋销售不及预期，强化市场对美联储降息的预期

美国4月新屋销售仅62.2万户，低于预期67万，房市转弱或点燃降息交易：期货押注9月前降息概率近65%，美元利差优势恐收缩，DXY承压。

28

May 2026

美国新屋销售不及预期，推动市场押注美联储降息并加剧房屋建筑商疲弱态势

美国4月新屋销售仅62.2万套，低于预期67万，房贷利率重返7%压抑需求。押注美债长端利率下行，做空建商ETF，并用VIX期权买保护。

28

May 2026

美国4月新屋销售上升但不及预期，推动美联储鸽派倾向升温并带动住房对冲交易布局

美国4月新屋销售62.2万套低于预期67万套：房市旺季仍偏弱。叠加房贷利率6.8%与就业降温，市场押注美联储更鸽派；关注SOFR多头、XHB认沽对冲。

28

May 2026

大华银行预计澳洲联储将把现金利率维持在4.35%，通胀降温但紧缩倾向仍在

UOB料RBA 6月维持现金利率4.35%，通胀放缓、就业降温但核心仍高。紧缩倾向未退：短率波动或偏高，可卖跨式收权利金；澳元上行受限，卖OOTM看涨并用远期利率看涨做对冲。

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