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29

May 2026

尽管出口强劲，韩国4月服务业产出仍下降1%，内需疲弱拖累增长

韩国4月服务业产出按月跌1%，逆转3月增1.4%，内需转弱警讯。留意KOSPI200认沽对冲回调，降息预期升温，USD/KRW多头捕捉韩元走软。

29

May 2026

澳元/美元企稳于0.7150附近，澳洲资本支出优于预期，美国PCE数据缓和美元需求

澳元受Q1资本支出暴增6.5%与数据中心投资带动，AUD/USD守稳0.7100反弹至0.7150。美PCE影响有限，关注GDP、非农与鲍威尔；0.7300阻力。

29

May 2026

新西兰5月消费者信心回升，挑战降息预期并支撑纽元

消费者信心指数5月反弹至86.5（仍低于100），暗示家庭压力缓和、消费更韧；通胀顽固或令RBNZ降息延后，利好零售股与纽元反弹机会。

29

May 2026

英镑守在1.3440附近，美国PCE与GDP数据偏软未能提振英镑/美元

美PCE与GDP齐弱却未推升英镑：GBP/USD卡在1.3400支撑与1.3460-1.3500阻力。下周看贝利多场讲话、ISM及非农，突破1.3500或引爆上行。

29

May 2026

美国-伊朗打击行动加剧霍尔木兹海峡风险，油价飙升、波动率激增

霍尔木兹海峡交火升级，美伊互袭、传美军机被击落，油价飙VIX冲高。资金转向黄金与避险，对冲股市回撤，押注能源、军工受益，航运航空承压。

29

May 2026

纽元/美元突破关键均线，纽储行鹰派按兵不动提振纽元升向0.6000

纽元/美元脱离盘整并站上100日均线，RBNZ强硬按兵不动、奶粉价走强与美国数据疲弱助攻。盯0.5950，破位看0.60；回落守0.5893/0.5850。期权布局顺势押涨。

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