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16

Jul 2026

英国5月GDP小幅回升0.1%，服务业反弹提振英镑并推升英国央行加息预期

英国5月GDP环比回升0.1%超预期，服务业成主引擎但工业、建筑拖累。利率掉期仍押注再加息，英镑/美元阻力1.3600后转入整理。

16

Jul 2026

加元盘整，加拿大央行转向中性立场，美元/加元徘徊于1.4000附近

加元动荡后转入盘整！加央行第六次维持利率2.25%并转中性，增长与加息预期或再定价，USD/CAD围绕1.4000低波动震荡，期权策略偏卖波与区间。

16

Jul 2026

中东紧张局势再度升温，重燃欧元区通胀风险，令市场对欧洲央行降息预期面临动摇

美伊冲突再起推升能源风险，欧元区通胀风险重回上行。欧央行7月腾挪空间扩大但前景更“坚挺”；建议做多短久期通胀互换、谨慎Euribor降息定价，并配置布油看涨及柴油裂解价差。

16

Jul 2026

美国5月企业库存增长0.3%，凸显需求稳健、市场维持区间震荡运行

美国企业库存5月环比增0.3%符合预期，库存投资温和累积、供需匹配稳健，波动或收敛；策略倾向卖短波动、关注零售制造期权错定价，并押注美联储政策路径平稳。

16

Jul 2026

美国成屋签约销售下滑推升降息押注，施压住宅建筑商并提振波动率对冲需求

美国6月未决房屋销售环比骤降5.4%远逊预期，交易“管道”明显收缩；高利率压制需求，或驱动美债收益率下行，警惕房建股回调与VIX上行风险。

16

Jul 2026

英国5月GDP小幅回升，但道明证券警告第二季度潜在增长接近零增长

英国5月GDP环比增0.1%略超预期，三个月增速0.7%或受季节性虚高；TD警示Q2潜在增长近零。BoE或转鸽，英镑回调风险升，建议布局GBP/USD虚值看跌及SONIA多头。

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