Live Updates

23

Jul 2026

美元与原油同步走高，股市回落，交易员聚焦失业金申领及天然气数据

地缘冲突推升风险溢价：美元与原油同涨、长债下跌，股指与黄金走弱。把握2年期美债与股指反向联动，紧盯初请及天然气库存。

23

Jul 2026

美元走软，红海局势动荡推升布伦特原油；市场计价欧洲央行与日本央行收紧政策预期

美元走弱叠加红海、黑海供应扰动，布油高波动推升通胀预期与美债收益率。市场押注ECB更鹰：9月加息概率90%高于美联储77%，策略关注原油价差、欧元跨式、日元看跌期权。

23

Jul 2026

科技股财报预警，中东冲突推升油价与债券收益率，欧洲股市下挫

财报“超预期”难掩资本开支上修与现金流承压，科技股回调；中东冲突推油价逼近100美元并抬升全球收益率。建议配置布油看涨、长久期国债看跌及科技跨式期权对冲波动。

23

Jul 2026

随着技术面信号增强及央行购金需求趋软，黄金做空布局加速升温，预示跌势或进一步加深

视频提出黄金偏空交易框架：技术转弱叠加央行购金放缓、强美元与高利率压制，建议反弹做空并用熊市价差/看跌期权控险，把握潜在更大跌幅。

23

Jul 2026

ING：市场预计欧洲央行将维持利率在2.25%不变；受油价推升通胀预期影响，9月加息预期已被计入价格

油价上行正重塑欧央行利率路径：ING料本次存款利率维持2.25%，但9月加息概率上升，市场已计入23bp；意外25bp仅属前置，通胀预期仍锚定。

23

Jul 2026

受霍尔木兹海峡忧虑与红海袭击推升油价风险溢价影响，布伦特原油升破97美元

布伦特原油早盘突破97美元，地缘风险溢价因美伊紧张及霍尔木兹、红海航运受阻重估。建议采用牛市价差、保护性看跌期权控成本与回撤风险。

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