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31

Jul 2026

日本央行将利率维持在1%，植田和男立场转鹰；道明证券预计12月加息并警示干预风险

日央行8:1维持政策利率1%，植田措辞偏鹰，日元反应平淡但干预风险犹存。德意志证券预计12月加息25bp，美元/日元宽幅震荡，建议区间期权与做多波动。

31

Jul 2026

美元下跌，市场对美联储降息押注升温；欧洲央行韧性、英国央行鹰派立场及日本干预预期构成压力

美元两日暴跌创1月来最差，市场下调9月美联储加息定价及美债收益率；欧英日央行动作施压美元。策略：买DXY虚值看跌，做多EURUSD与GBP。

31

Jul 2026

美元企稳及市场对美联储加息的押注施压金价，黄金回落，关注4,000美元支撑位

金价失守4100回落至4037，美元企稳及美联储加息预期压制；4000支撑犹在，建议区间期权收息并以虚值看跌/价差对冲下破风险。

31

Jul 2026

巴西6月名义预算赤字扩大至1660亿雷亚尔，未达市场预期并加剧财政担忧

巴西6月名义预算赤字1,660亿雷亚尔，较预期高328亿；财政失准或推升债务率、引发资本外流并抬升Selic利率，雷亚尔与股市承压，波动率交易机会显现。

31

Jul 2026

印度外汇储备增加61.1亿美元至6823.5亿美元，增强印度央行捍卫卢比能力

印度外储飙升至6823.5亿美元、单周增61.1亿创高，为卢比提供强缓冲；RBI干预预期压制USD/INR波动率，策略偏区间与卖方、反弹做空。

31

Jul 2026

澳元/美元在0.7030附近企稳，美元走弱抵消中国PMI疲软及澳洲联储加息预期降温影响

AUD/USD徘徊0.7030：美元走弱托底，但中国PMI跌破50压制上行；美GDP放缓、澳通胀降温致RBA加息概率骤降，料汇价区间震荡。

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