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3

Aug 2026

欧元/美元瞄准1.1500，期权交易员在美国关键就业数据公布前严阵以待波动

紧盯EUR/USD 1.1500关键支撑/阻力，汇价高位盘整；地缘不确定性叠加JOLTS与非农或放大波动，建议短期限跨式/宽跨式与障碍期权对冲，择机布局秋季看涨期权。

3

Aug 2026

土耳其贸易逆差扩大至104亿美元，尽管利率维持在50%仍强化里拉脆弱性

土耳其6月进出口反弹但进口更强，贸易逆差同比扩至104亿美元、约占GDP 6%。高利率难改国际收支压力；里拉脆弱警报升温，建议借USD/TRY期权与短期远期对冲贬值风险。

3

Aug 2026

股市普涨，科技股走强；交易员对冲中东风险，美元走软、黄金回落

周五风险偏好回升、广度改善但科技股动能不足；中东地缘风险升温或触发防御买盘。美元回落难强、收益率高企压制贵金属，建议期权对冲波动与下行。

3

Aug 2026

美联储宽松政策锚定美国国债收益率，汇率上行空间收窄之际巴西和墨西哥主权债吸引力提升

美联储前端利率趋稳、实际利率走软，为巴西与墨西哥释放短端宽松空间。建议把握再平衡窗口，增配长久期主权债及利率衍生品，适度下调对冲留汇率上行。

3

Aug 2026

台湾第二季度GDP增速放缓，内需主导；资金外流加剧，股市与新台币承压

台湾Q2 GDP同比放缓至12.9%，但环比动能9.9%偏强，内需贡献首超净出口。通胀或升温，央行Q4或加息12.5bp；外资抛售加剧，股汇债承压。

3

Aug 2026

市场严阵以待美国就业数据密集发布，美联储维持利率不变、收益率上行施压黄金与比特币

非农周成风险引爆点：美联储鹰派按兵不动、9月行动隐含概率68%。若就业强于9万推升收益率，黄金或探4000、比特币恐破6万；弱于8万或反弹。

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