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3

Mar 2026

美元/日元仍在157中段下方区间震荡，因市场预期日本央行加息推迟导致日元持续走弱

美元/日元陷区间、受制157.50。美联储降息预期降温叠加中东避险推升美元；日银或推迟加息且存干预天花板。可考虑158.50附近看涨期权/价差布局。

3

Mar 2026

西班牙2月失业人数增加3.584千人，远低于预期的增加37.5千人

西班牙2月失业仅增3584人，远低于预期3.75万！就业火热叠加PMI与GDP上修，强化经济韧性，压低降息概率，支撑欧元并利好IBEX35。

3

Mar 2026

西班牙失业人数增加3000人，远低于2月数据发布时预期的37500人

西班牙2月失业仅增3,000，远低于预期37,500，经济或更热。叠加服务业PMI走强与旅游超预期，建议看多IBEX35、消费银行，并做多IBEX空DAX。

3

Mar 2026

在中东局势不断升级之际，美元保持稳定，对全球其他货币依然坚挺

美元指数站上98.80创一月新高！中东冲突与霍尔木兹关闭传闻推升避险，油价涨超4%、欧美股指期货跌，欧元英镑走弱、日元承压。

3

Mar 2026

巴西FIPE IPC通胀率2月升至0.25%，高于此前的0.21% reading

巴西2月FIPE通胀升至0.25%超预期，圣保罗物价压力难退。降息或近尾声，DI期货需重估，暂停降息概率升。利差优势或支撑雷亚尔，USD/BRL可考虑卖虚值看涨。

3

Mar 2026

在中东冲突背景下，白银交投于87.20美元附近，尽管避险需求升温，仍延续两连跌

中东战火未能托起白银：美元走强、美债收益率升至4.07%压制XAG/USD连跌。霍尔木兹风险推高通胀与波动率，宜用看跌期权或跨式控险。

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