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4

Mar 2026

中国国家统计局非制造业PMI在2月录得49.5，低于预期的49.8

49.5！2月非制造业PMI跌破荣枯线且不及预期，服务与建筑转弱。关注刺激加码、做空CNH、看空铜与中国相关股，并用VIX对冲波动上升。

4

Mar 2026

中国国家统计局制造业PMI 2月录得49，低于分析师预测的49.1

2月制造业PMI跌至49、低于预期，连续收缩警报拉响：工业需求转弱拖累铜铁矿等大宗；宽松预期升温或压人民币，全球股票与中资敞口面临下行风险。

4

Mar 2026

欧元/美元在反弹未能延续后仍承压于 1.1600 下方，或面临进一步下跌风险

欧元/美元连跌失守1.1600：中东冲突推高能源与通胀风险，欧洲更受伤；美元避险叠加美联储降息预期降温支撑强势，汇价或延续下行至1.1500下方。

4

Mar 2026

澳大利亚GDP数据公布后，澳元/美元仍承压，在亚洲时段交投于0.7010附近，连续第二日下跌

澳元/美元连跌至0.7010；虽澳洲GDP超预期显韧性，但美元走强、降息预期降温与通胀担忧施压。关注美国ISM服务业，策略偏买入看跌期权。

4

Mar 2026

日本Jibun Bank服务业PMI 2月达到预期的53.8，基本符合市场预测

日本2月服务业PMI达53.8延续扩张，通胀与工资走强助推日央行更快加息。收益率或上行、日元看涨，警惕强日元压制日股。

4

Mar 2026

新西兰澳新银行（ANZ）大宗商品价格指数攀升至4.2%，高于上月的2%

ANZ大宗商品指数2月跳涨4.2%，较1月2%明显加速，暗示新西兰出口需求回暖。纽元或获支撑，市场降息预期或收敛；GDT乳价再涨2.8%印证趋势。

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