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Live Updates

4

Mar 2026

2月美国ISM服务业PMI升至56.1，超出预期，服务业增长显著加快

意外回暖点燃软着陆预期：美国2月ISM服务业PMI升至56.1，新订单大增至58.6；价格支付降至63缓压通胀，就业回升。美元指数回吐涨幅跌破99。

4

Mar 2026

2月美国ISM服务业PMI升至56.1，高于市场预测的53.5，显示服务业活动增强

美国2月ISM服务业PMI飙至56.1远超预期，增长与通胀齐升。降息押注或推迟：收益率、美元偏强，科技股承压；可减仓降息交易并用期权对冲。

4

Mar 2026

2月份，美国ISM服务业新订单指数从此前的53.1升至58.6

ISM服务业新订单2月飙至58.6，远超预期，暗示经济加速：降息或推迟、收益率与美元走强。VIX低位或被点燃，期权跨式/保护性看跌值得关注。

4

Mar 2026

2月美国ISM服务业支付价格指数下降，从此前的66.6降至本月的63

ISM服务业支付价格2月降至63，通胀降温初现。市场或上调7月降息概率，利好美股、压低VIX并拖累美元；关注SOFR、标普看涨、欧元/美元。

4

Mar 2026

2月，美国ISM服务业就业指数升至51.8，高于此前的50.3

ISM服务业就业指数2月升至51.8，招工意外强劲、通胀仍高。美联储更可能推迟降息，“高利率更久”升温：利率衍生品或重定价，债券看跌与VIX对冲机会浮现。

4

Mar 2026

澳元/美元徘徊在0.7040附近，尽管中东冲突与疲软的美国数据交织，仍缺乏明确方向

AUD/USD徘徊0.7040：美元走弱、中东冲突推升避险。伊朗或释谈判信号。美ADP略强、关税或升；澳GDP超预期但PMI放缓，静待ISM与非农。

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