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9

Mar 2026

欧元/日元升至183.20，上涨0.35%；油价飙升及日本央行延后加息削弱日元

中东冲突升级却未掀强避险，日元走弱推EUR/JPY升至183.20。市场紧盯日银利率或延后，欧元区信心与德国数据转弱增变数。

9

Mar 2026

道明证券认为，伊朗紧张局势与油价上升正重新强化美元的避险角色

中东局势与油价飙升，美元避险属性强势回归！TD Securities指美国经济更封闭、能源独立且地缘更安全；通胀风险推迟降息、利差扩大利多美元，市场紧盯伊朗与能源价格。

9

Mar 2026

MUFG 的李·哈德曼表示，2 月非农就业人数减少 9.2 万，逆转 1 月增幅，凸显美国劳动力市场持续疲软

美国2月非农骤降9.2万，劳市走弱信号拉响：滞胀压力下美联储更尴尬。利率波动或放大，关注曲线倒挂、SOFR期权与欧央行加息分化。

9

Mar 2026

ING的Chris Turner表示，美元/日元逼近日本干预区间；协调行动可能性不大，但一旦出手或引发急跌

美元/日元重返160干预区，油价飙升令美元偏强。若美日协调出手，或瞬跌3–5“大整数位”，短期波动率再飙；惟供应未稳，跌势难久。

9

Mar 2026

德国商业银行称德国工业仍疲弱，受此前合同扭曲影响，1月订单在大幅下滑后回落

德国订单暴跌11.1%实因大单退潮，核心需求仅跌0.4%、工业仍停滞。DAX逼近高位宜防回调，做空欧元兑美元；低波动卖期权，押注降息做多德债。

9

Mar 2026

法国兴业银行布鲁克斯称，能源及荷兰天然气价格上涨拖累欧元，在增长忧虑下欧元兑美元（EUR/USD）持续承压

能源危机再掀波澜：荷兰TTF天然气飙升拖累欧元，EUR/USD逼近1.06。市场虽押注ECB两次加息，但增长风险盖过利差，短期偏空，可用1.05下方看跌期权布局。

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