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9

Mar 2026

欧元/美元在美元回落后自三个月低位反弹，弥补看跌跳空缺口

欧元/美元周初看跌跳空后反弹，美元回落。中东冲突推升油价至115美元上方，霍尔木兹风险搅动避险。通胀再升温，ECB转鹰、Fed降息预期降；本周紧盯美国CPI/PCE引爆波动。

9

Mar 2026

在油价上涨与伊朗紧张局势升温之际，避险情绪支撑美元，英镑兑美元下跌

伊朗冲突点燃避险潮，美元走强压低英镑/美元至1.3366；油价仍涨11%提振通胀与波动预期。交易可考虑镑美Put、跨式做多波动、原油Call布局。

9

Mar 2026

受中国通胀向好支撑，澳元/美元升至0.7040附近，但美元走强限制涨幅

中国通胀数据超预期提振澳元，AUD/USD升至0.7040；但油价飙升与中东局势推高美元，压制涨势。市场紧盯美国2月CPI定方向。

9

Mar 2026

尽管利率前景偏鸽派支撑欧元，市场优先关注地缘政治风险升温，欧元兑美元走弱

欧元/美元逆转走弱，地缘风险与期权风险逆转偏空主导；RSI近超卖、锤头十字星暗示卖压减。短线看1.1520-1.1620震荡，政策分歧美强欧弱。

9

Mar 2026

道明证券称，美联储将按兵不动，在伊朗局势紧张与美国劳动力数据喜忧参半之际，等待更明确的形势信号

伊朗冲突与就业数据分化下，TD Securities 料美联储短期按兵不动，但通胀若续降，6月起或每季降息25bp共三次；策略上押注高波动更关键。

9

Mar 2026

法国巴黎银行预计，随着欧洲经济增长及美国财政政策转向，欧元将兑美元走强

抓紧欧元升浪？法巴看美国财政变局+欧元区增长更稳，估EUR/USD 2026Q4见1.20。通胀仍低，ECB或2027H2才加息至2.5%。期权波动或不高。

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